NFL Week 12 Predictions

MIKE

Saints (-9.5) vs. Falcons

Saints 31-17 (Saints cover spread)

The Saints managed to get by a tough 49ers group at home on a K Garrett Hartley last-second field-goal. QB Drew Brees had a decent day (for him) against a stout San Francisco defense, and got a little help from the refs on the LB Ahmad Brooks hit. The Falcons got handled by the lowly Bucs and fell into the cellar in the NFC South. Hard to imagine for a team that was the number one seed in the NFC last season, and has been a regular in the playoffs the last handful of years. A defense that gives up 41 points to the 2-8 Bucs should not be expected to hold their own against New Orleans.

Buccaneers vs. Lions (-8.5)

Lions 34-24 (Lions cover spread)

The Bucs are rebounding nicely the last two weeks, picking up wins against Miami and Atlanta, after that dreadful 0-8 start. QB Mike Glennon completed 87% of his passes last week and threw for a couple of scores. WR Vincent Jackson has been a big-time threat as of late, and will give the Lions secondary fits on Sunday. The Lions suffered a setback at Pittsburgh last week in a shootout loss, and will need to rebound quickly with the Bears at 6-4 as well. Their offense is too tough to handle at home for a team like Tampa Bay, and even though their defense can be suspect, expect them to get this win and move to 7-4.

Jaguars vs. Texans (-10)

Texans 27-14 (Texans cover spread)

You know it’s bad when you’re a 10-point underdog against a 2-8 team in Houston. That is the current situation the abysmal Jaguars find themselves in this week. The Jags only lost by 13 to the Cardinals last week, and were actually up by a touchdown after the first quarter. They failed to score a point the rest of the game. Houston has been one of the league’s major disappointments this season, despite the injuries to QB Matt Schaub and RB Arian Foster. Having said that, their defense is ranked 1^st in the NFL, only surrendering 286.1 YPG. Facing a 1-9 team that hasn’t had much of an offensive showing thus far should be the recipe for the Texans to get back in the ‘W’ column.

Vikings vs. Packers (-5)

Packers 23-20 (Vikings beat spread)

The loss of QB Aaron Rodgers has made the Pack into an average team at best. If RB Eddie Lacy isn’t able to get going on the ground, it puts way too much pressure on fill-in QB Scott Tolzien who does not have much NFL quarterback experience. That was evidenced by the 3 interceptions he tossed last week against the Giants, after Lacy was only able to rack up 27 yards rushing. The Vikings are not a good football team, but the vulnerability of Green Bay leads me to believe this one will remain close with the Cheeseheads finding a way in the end.

Chargers vs. Chiefs (-5.5)

Chiefs 24-20 (Chargers beat spread)

Kansas City’s unbeaten streak was halted by the Broncos last week in a game where the Chiefs offense never really got going. Denver’s defense played better than it had in previous games, and RB Jamaal Charles never really made an impression. The Chargers are in dire-straights and desperately need a win in order to keep pace in the wild-card standings. QB Philip Rivers will do his best to befuddle a tough Kansas City defense who was exposed for the first time all season last week at Denver. It will ultimately fall short, as Kansas City is one of the toughest places in the league to go get a win against a top-tier football team.

Panthers (-4.5) vs. Dolphins

Panthers 20-13 (Panthers cover spread)

Miami has managed to stay in the thick of things in the AFC wild card hunt, and will need a win this Sunday in order to further their playoff progress. The Panthers are one of the hottest teams in the league right now behind the play of QB Cam Newton and their 2^nd ranked defense. Miami hasn’t exactly been primarily focused on football as of late, but need to turn that focus on in order to prevail over a contender in Carolina. The Panthers will ride another quality performance from their defense and get an efficient day from Newton and RB DeAngelo Williams in order to keep pace with the Saints in the NFC South.

Steelers vs. Browns (-1)

Steelers 16-12 (Steelers beat spread)

Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger put together an outstanding performance last week to lead his group to a big home win against Detroit. Roethlisberger has thrown for an impressive 971 yards, 9 TD’s and 3 INT’s in the past three games to keep the Steelers alive in both the division and wild card race. Cleveland is also sitting at 4-6 very much in the conversation in the playoff hunt. Their 5^th ranked defense has carried them throughout much of the year with instability at the quarterback position. Expect a low-scoring, typical AFC North defensive struggle where the more-experienced Steelers will come out on top and beat the spread.

Bears vs. Rams (-1)

Bears 28-24 (Bears beat spread)

The Bears are tied atop the NFC North with the Lions at 6-4, while the Rams are fighting to keep their season alive at 4-6. Chicago is a soft 6-4, and with the impressive play of backup QB Josh McCown, will look to move to an even softer 7-4 this Sunday. The Rams do not possess the passing attack to truly worry the Bears, even though they are an unimpressively 24^th ranked bunch. RB Zac Stacy has been solid in replacing RB Stephen Jackson, but the loss of QB Sam Bradford will be too much for this team to overcome. Chicago will utilize its outside weapons in WR’s Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey to create mismatches downfield in order to scrape by St. Louis on the road.

Jets vs. Ravens (-3.5)

Ravens 21-14 (Ravens cover spread)

The defending champs are in the muck of a three-way tie for second place in the AFC North, but do own a pivotal win against the Bengals two weeks ago. They suffered a setback in a delayed game at Chicago last week, and eventually lost in overtime. The Jets were embarrassed at Buffalo, losing by 23 to the Bills behind four QB Geno Smith turnovers. Gang Green demoted WR Stephen Hill from the starting lineup for lack of production in the passing game. RB Ray Rice is desperate for a breakout performance this season, as he only has rushed for a measly 420 yards thus far. He won’t shred the Jets defense, but will have a solid day including a rushing touchdown. QB Joe Flacco will have his hands full with the 8^th ranked Jets defense, but look for some key receptions from veteran TE Dallas Clark in critical situations to help the Ravens stay involved in the playoff picture this week.

Titans (-1) vs. Raiders

Raiders 26-24 (Raiders beat spread)

This is a big game for both teams looking to stay alive in the AFC wild card hunt. At 4-6, both clubs are looking to inch closer to the sixth-seed while picking up a head-to-head win over one of their competitors. QB Matt McGloin was instrumental in tossing 3 TD’s last week to lead the Raiders to a victory at Houston in his first career start. He’ll need to keep that level up against the 10^th ranked Titan defense. RB Chris Johnson has been better in the last few weeks for the Titans, but still has not returned to the form we saw from him 4-5 years ago. Without a true no. 1 receiver the Titans are going to need a heavy dose of Johnson to keep McGloin and the Raiders offense off the field. This one will come down to the wire as the Raiders will be able to hold on at home.

Colts vs. Cardinals (-2.5)

Colts 34-28 (Colts beat spread)

The Cardinals are firmly in contention for an NFC wild card berth at 6-4, and the Colts are in complete control of the NFC South at 7-3. This should be an entertaining matchup of two potential playoff teams in Glendale, and both offenses will get an opportunity to strut their stuff. WR T.Y. Hilton will have to outperform WR’s Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald in order for the Colts to come away with a road win. Either team hasn’t been a huge threat on the ground, and the game will come down to which secondary can hold up better. I’ll also take QB Andrew Luck over QB Carson Palmer any day of the week, and Luck will be able to hold off Palmer and the Birds in the end to preserve the win.

Cowboys vs. Giants (-2.5)

Giants 33-26 (Giants cover spread)

Things are starting to get very interesting in the NFC East, with this pivotal game adding to the drama. The Giants have been taking care of business against lesser opponents with backup quarterbacks of late, but have looked very impressive on the defensive side of the ball while doing so. Dallas has had some extra time to prepare for their division rivals following a bye week, and will need to be at their top level in order to get by the G-Men and a raucous crowd at MetLife. QB Tony Romo has not come up strong in big games vs. the Giants in recent years, and, while this one isn’t to the degree of some of the others, it is still an important one in determining the outcome of the NFC East. QB Eli Manning will have a big game against a suspect Dallas secondary and New York’s defense will force a key turnover in the 4^th quarter to hold off the ‘Boys and make it five straight wins.

Broncos (-3) vs. Patriots

Broncos 37-27 (Broncos cover spread)

The Broncos made it known that they should not be overshadowed by the Chiefs or anyone else in the league last Sunday night. They will get another opportunity to do exactly that this week in Foxboro. Denver’s defense did a solid job in limiting the Chiefs’ offense last week, and QB Peyton Manning once again eclipsed 300 yards to lead the Broncos to a big win. The Patriots suffered a tough loss Monday night at Carolina, and felt as if they were robbed in the end when a pass-interference penalty flag was picked up on the last play of the game. The Pats still hold a two-game lead in the AFC East over the Jets and Dolphins, but the pressure will mount if they cannot escape this game with a win. Manning vs. Brady never disappoints, and this one will live up to the billing with exciting plays, big hits, and drama. I like Peyton’s team more than Tom’s this year, which will prove to be the difference as Denver moves to 10-1.

49ers (-6) vs. Redskins

49ers 22-16 (49ers cover spread)

This game would have been an intriguing matchup heading into the season, but with the Redskins all but eliminated from playoff contention, this is more about the need for the 49ers to get back on track than anything else. San Francisco is on the fringe of the playoff picture at 6-4, and need to treat each game as a playoff game from here on out. Last week’s loss at New Orleans was a tough pill to swallow, considering the late lead the 49ers squandered. Washington will come out and play hard, clinging to a flickering hope of staying alive in the NFC East. The matchup of QB Robert Griffin III vs. QB Colin Kaepernick will be an interesting dynamic, as neither quarterback has lived up to their rookie starting campaigns. Both teams will be desperate on Monday night, but the 49ers have more to play for at this stage. RB Frank Gore will outperform RB Alfred Morris and the 49ers defense will serve up a quality performance from start to finish to keep their nose in front in the wild card standings. 

ADAM

Saints (-10) vs Falcons

30-13 Saints

After last weeks loss to the Buccaneers I have a tough time seeing the Falcons winning another game this year. Saints continue to roll and come away with a big victory on Thursday Night Football.

Jets vs Ravens (-4)

21-17 Jets

The Jets and Geno Smith will continue their on again off again play and bounce back on Sunday against the Raven. The Jets defense will be all over Joe Flacco and wouldn’t it be great to see Ed Reed pick Flacco a few times. Jets win and beat the spread.

Steelers vs Browns (-1.5)

27-20 Steelers

Josh Gordon and Jason Campbell have been able to hook up for some big plays so far this season and they will continue to do the same this weekend. However, Ben Roethlisberger will continue to stay hot and will lead the Steelers to victory on the road.

Panthers (-4.5) vs Dolphins

27-14 Panthers

The Panthers made a statement on Monday night with their win over the Patriots. They are legit. The Panthers defense will have the Dolphins on their heels all day and will force a few turnovers. Panthers continue their hot streak and take care of the Dolphins in Miami.

Bears vs Rams (-1)

24-20 Bears

The Rams pulled off an amazing upset in week 10 against the Colts. They’ll put up a good fight but it won’t be enough. Josh McCown hasn’t thrown an interception yet this season as Jay Cutlers replacement and he will put up another strong performance leading the Rams to big road victory.

Buccaneers vs Lions (-8.5)

28-24 Lions

The Buccaneers have won two in a row and are feeling good about themselves. Mike Glennon and Vincent Jackson caused problems for the Falcons last week and if they are on the same page it could be a long day for Detroit. However, the Bucs will have trouble stopping the Lions pass attack as Calvin Johnson will lead the Lions to a narrow win.

Vikings vs Packers (-5)

23-20 Packers

This game doesn’t boast the greatest quarterbacks the NFL has to offer. I never thought I would say this but I see Scott Tolzein doing enough to lead the Packers past the Vikings at home this week.

Jaguars vs Texans (-10)

24-20 Texans

The Jaguars have been showing some life and have been looking a lot better than they were at the beginning of this year. Even though the Texans have their own issues, there’s just too much talent on this Houston team to lose to the Jaguars. Texans come away with a 4 point victory.

Chargers vs Chiefs (-5.5)

24-17 Chiefs

This is the perfect bounce back game for the Chiefs playing a division rival at home. The Chiefs defense and the home field advantage will be too much for San Diego to overcome. Kansas City bounces back from their first loss of the year.

Colts vs Cardinals (-1.5)

17-13 Colts

It might take another one of Andrew Luck’s inspirational speeches but the Colts will get past the Cardinals and their tough defense on the road. Look for Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton to connect multiple times Sunday.

Titans vs Raiders (-1)

21-17 Titans

With two backups under center in this matchup I’m going with the Titans here because of Chris Johnson. I won’t be watching this one but I expect both defenses to have a strong showing. Titans cover the spread.

Cowboys vs Giants (-2.5)

31-28 Cowboys

The NFC East has been almost impossible to predict so far this season. I feel like the Giants were 0-6 and then I blinked and they’re now 4-6. Even though they’ve won their past 4 I’m going with Dez Bryant and Tony Romo exploiting the Giants secondary and getting a big win in New Jersey.

Broncos (-3) vs Patriots

30-27 Broncos

This is the big game of the week. The Patriots coming off a controversial loss to the Panthers and the Broncos off a big win against the Chiefs. The Patriots are going to throw everything they have at Denver and this one will go down to the wire with Matt Prater hitting a late field goal to win.

49ers (-6) vs Redskins

27-20 49ers

RGIII will be able to keep this one close but in the end, the 49ers defense will too much for RGIII and the Redskins. The 49ers will bounce back from their last second loss to the Saints and the Redskins will have more questions to answer after this loss.