MIKE
WAS
(-2.5) vs. MIN
WAS 30-21 (WAS covers spread)
The ‘Skins are coming off a huge
home win vs. San Diego last week, where they survived a last second goal line
situation to force overtime and eventually win it in the extra period.
Washington is averaging 407.6 YPG (5th in NFL), and doing it both on
the ground and through the air. Redskins QB Robert Griffin III has been playing
better week after week, and has the 3-5 ‘Skins right in the thick of things in
the mediocre NFC East. The Vikings have competed hard the last two weeks vs.
Green Bay and Dallas, so don’t expect them to lay down this week. The main
issue for them is the lack of a competent quarterback, which will be the
difference in this matchup.
SEA
(-6) vs. ATL
SEA
25-23 (ATL beats spread)
The Seattle Seahawks are sitting
pretty at 8-1 as the top seed in the NFC. However, they have not looked
impressive of late, narrowly squeaking by the measly Rams and Bucs. RB Marshawn
Lynch has put in some hard running for them and is compiling a solid year with
726 rushing yards and 6 TD’s through 9 games. Atlanta’s leading WR is still
Julio Jones who has been out for a number of games, which is of some concern.
They still rank 5th in the NFL in passing offense (289.2 YPG), but
without much of a running game the pressure on QB Matt Ryan to produce has
resulted in 7 INT’s in the past two games. The Falcons always play well at
home, and combined with the recent struggles of Seattle, this one will be close
throughout with the ‘Hawks coming away with another close victory.
CIN
(-1.5) vs. BAL
CIN
24-21 (CIN covers spread)
The Bengals dropped a tough one
on the road last week vs. Miami, with an overtime game ending on safety for
only the third time in NFL history. They almost overcame QB Andy Dalton’s rough
night (3 INT), and pulled it out on Thursday night, but will be able to rebound
nicely this week against a struggling Ravens unit. QB Joe Flacco has not lived
up to his $120.6 million dollar contract thus far, and RB Ray Rice has had his
most pedestrian year as a pro (2.7 YPC). Baltimore is 29th in the
league in rushing offense (71.6 YPG) and Cincinnati is 7th in
passing offense (273.4 YPG). Baltimore will not be able to generate a running
game, which will allow Dalton to remain on the field and air it out to his
plethora of WR and TE options. Regardless, AFC North battles are always tough,
physical encounters. Don’t expect any different here, but trust the Bengals to
make enough plays in the passing game to get by Baltimore.
DET
vs. CHI (PICK EM’)
DET
34-27 (DET wins straight up)
The Lions are coming off their
bye after that exhilarating win vs. Dallas a couple of weeks ago, while Chicago
caught a break with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers going down on Monday night to help
them secure a divisional win. There’s a three-way tie atop the NFC North, and
it will be interesting to see if either of these two teams can take advantage
of Green Bay’s injuries and gain control of this division. Bears QB Josh McCown
looked impressive vs. the Pack on Monday night, especially in orchestrating a 9
and a half minute 4th quarter drive to seal the game. QB Jay Culter
said he’s ready to return, which should be a boost for the Bears this Sunday. Even
though this game is at Soldier Field, I still like the Lions more than the
Bears to break open this division. Their offense is downright scary at times,
ranking 3rd in the NFL (416 YPG), and they are able to do it through
the air and on the ground with RB Reggie Bush. This should be a high-octane
matchup of two of the league’s premier receivers in Calvin Johnson and Brandon
Marshall, who will both eclipse the 120 yard mark. Look for the Lions to
outgain the Bears and force a critical 4th quarter turnover to come
away with this one.
PHI
vs. GB (-1)
PHI
26-16 (PHI beats spread)
Philadelphia QB Nick Foles did
his best Peyton Manning impersonation last week in leading the Eagles to a west
coast drubbing vs. Oakland. Foles threw for 7 TD’s and distributed them fairly
well (3 to Riley Cooper and 1 each to Brent Celek, DeSean Jackson, LeSean
McCoy, and Zach Ertz). Green Bay had suffered devastating injuries previously
this season, but none worse than the one they endured Monday night. The loss of
QB Aaron Rodgers is more detrimental to the Pack than arguably any injury to
another player to any team in the league. He facilitates their offense and
allows them to be a dual threat both in the passing game and on the ground. QB
Seneca Wallace will have to do his best to keep the Pack relevant in the playoff
race for the next 4-6 weeks. I see this game being tightly contested, but the
limited nature of the Green Bay offense will be the difference vs. an Eagle
team who showed explosiveness on that side of the ball a week ago.
STL
vs. IND (-9.5)
IND
36-22 (IND covers spread)
The Colts overcame an 18-point
halftime deficit last Sunday night to edge division rival Houston. The loss of
WR Reggie Wayne seemed to impact them only for a half, as their passing game
got going in the second half (mainly the 4th quarter). While QB
Andrew Luck hasn’t racked up huge yardage totals, he has a 13 TD to 3 INT ratio
and a solid 91.5 QB rating. He threw a beauty game-winning touchdown to WR T.Y.
Hilton vs. the Texans and has been mistake free for much of the season. Conversely,
the Rams played Tennessee pretty tough at home last week, losing by a touchdown
behind another big game from RB Zac Stacy (27 carries, 127 yds, 2 TD’s). They
have slipped a bit in the last few weeks and will continue to fall against one
of the best teams in the AFC.
OAK
vs. NYG (-7.5)
NYG
31-24 (OAK beats spread)
The Giants are coming off their
bye to face an Oakland team looking to rebound from a beat down last week. This
is a must-win for Big Blue to keep pace in the NFC East, and QB Eli Manning is
poised to keep his sound play going for the third straight game. The Raiders
pass defense got exposed in a major way last week, giving up a shocking 7 TD’s
to Eagles QB Nick Foles. QB Terrelle Pryor did not put up great passing numbers
last week and tossed 2 INT’s in the loss, but maintains his effectiveness on
the ground as Oakland’s leading rusher (485 yds, 1 TD). Giants RB David Wilson
looks to be headed to the injured reserve list, which means RB Peyton Hillis
will have to continue to shoulder much of the load. Manning should be able to
exploit Oakland’s suspect pass defense, and the Giants defense will be able to
manage Pryor and the Oakland running game in order to come up with a win.
BUF
vs. PIT (-3)
BUF
20-17 (BUF beats spread)
Bills QB E.J. Manuel returns to
face a Steelers defense that was torched by New England a week ago. Steelers QB
Ben Roethlisberger has not had much help in getting his team on track, as the
defense has looked old and the running game has struggled to pick up steam.
This is a season on-the-line game for the Steelers, who must string wins
together to have any hope of remaining in contention. If not for a few costly
mistakes (100 yd INT returned for a touchdown), the Bills may have actually
been able to dethrone the Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeatens last week.
Manuel’s return coupled with their effective ground game should have the Bills
move to 4-6 after this AFC matchup.
JAC
vs. TEN (-12)
TEN
17-6 (TEN covers spread)
Titans RB Chris Johnson came to
life last week vs. the Rams, rushing for 150 yards and 2 scores in the team
win. For the Jags, the suspension of WR Justin Blackmon takes away a big option
in the passing game, while RB Maurice Jones-Drew remains highly ineffective
thus far. They rank 31st in the NFL in rushing yards per game with
66.4, and do not do a whole lot more through the air (220.1 YPG, 19th
in NFL). This combination does not lead me to believe that they can hurt a
solid Titans defense that need to continue to play well in order for them to
compete for a wild card berth. Expect RB Chris Johnson to duplicate his
performance from last week and lead Tennessee to a victory that will move them
to 5-4.
CAR
vs. SF (-6.5)
SF
27-21 (CAR beats spread)
This is an intriguing matchup in
the NFC of two teams in great position to capture both wild card spots. The
49ers come off their bye to a stern test at home from a Carolina bunch that has
been hot while riding the back of QB Cam Newton and a stout defense to three
consecutive wins. San Francisco has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL,
winners of five straight before their bye week. This is also a matchup of two
of the premier read-option, running quarterbacks in the league, which should
create additional problems for the opposing defenses. The 49ers have more
options in the passing game than Carolina, which should prove to be the
difference in this game. Getting WR Mario Manningham back to go along with TE
Vernon Davis and WR Anquan Boldin will prove to be too much even for the 3rd
ranked Carolina defense to handle.
HOU
vs. ARI (-2.5)
HOU
35-31 (HOU beats spread)
Houston suffered a very tough
loss last Sunday night, not only on the field but with the collapse of head
coach Gary Kubiak. Wade Phillips will fill-in for Kubiak until he is ready and
fit to return to his coaching duties. Luckily for Houston, Phillips has
head-coaching experience with the Cowboys, and should be able to take over the reins
with little issue. Texans QB Case Keenum has performed admirably in his
replacement of QB Matt Schaub, and will continue to build on that this week,
albeit against a top secondary in the Cardinals. Houston will have to lean on
him heavily with the absence of RB Arian Foster. Arizona is still in the hunt
in the NFC, presumably for a wild card berth, and every game counts. QB Carson
Palmer will look to WR’s Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald to be difference
makers this Sunday, but they will also need to trust that Palmer can avoid
mistakes and get the job done. He will make plays through the air, but
ultimately succumb to a young quarterback who has not thrown an interception
since he has been inserted into the starting role.
DEN
(-7) vs. SD
DEN
38-35 (SD beats spread)
Denver comes off their bye as a second-place
7-1 team due to the outstanding start by the Kansas City Chiefs. Their defense
has raised serious questions as being able to hold up throughout the rest of
the season and playoffs. Most people would dream of performing at this level in
their careers at 37-years old, as Denver QB Peyton Manning has tossed 29 TD’s
to 6 INT’s and thrown for 2,919 yards through the MIDWAY point of the season. I
put midway in caps because most NFL quarterbacks would take those numbers for a
full season in a heartbeat. Denver’s number 1 ranked offense will have its way
with division rival San Diego, but QB Phillip Rivers and his offense will play
their part in this offensive struggle. Rivers has thrown for 17 TD’s to 7 INT’s
and 2,473 yards thus far, and will have another strong outing against the 30th
ranked Broncos pass defense. Rivers will inevitably come up a little short and
be outdone in a valiant effort by Peyton this Sunday.
DAL
vs. NO (-7)
NO
35-26 (NO covers spread)
Dallas hasn’t showed us much in
the last couple of weeks, inexcusably dropping a last-second game to Detroit
and nearly losing at home to the woeful Vikings. This does not sound like a
good recipe for going up against a Saints team, coming off a tough loss, back
in their beloved dome. QB Drew Brees should be able to throw for major yardage
and scores against a Dallas defense who ranks 31st overall. Dallas
QB Tony Romo will contribute to the show Sunday night and toss a couple of
scores, but will not be able to prevent WR Dez Bryant from chewing him out on
the sidelines. Even though New Orleans has not had a consistent running attack,
I think the Brees to TE Jimmy Graham connection will cause big problems for the
Dallas secondary. The improved Saint defense will be able to limit the Cowboys
to an extent and Brees and that passing game will be in full force Sunday night
to lead the Saints to a bounce-back win.
MIA
(-3) vs. TB
MIA
16-14 (TB beats spread)
Let’s see if Miami can manage to
put all of the distractions aside and capitalize on an opportunity to move
above .500. Despite the sideshow, Miami is a better football team than Tampa
Bay (who isn’t?), and should find a way to win this game. However, the Bucs
acquitted themselves nicely last week in forcing the Seahawks into overtime. QB
Mike Glennon played very well and had the Bucs in strong position to cause the
upset of the season. Tampa will ride the back of RB Mike James and hope to get
another strong outing from Glennon to surprise the ‘Fins. QB Ryan Tannehill
won’t light up the stat sheet, but will get WR’s Mike Wallace and Brian
Hartline involved enough to escape with a win.
ADAM
Redskins (-2.5) vs Vikings
21-13 Redskins
The Redskins have been
improving every week and could possibly be on their way to making the push for
the playoffs they made last year. RGIII is looking more like RGIII and well the
Vikings have Christian Ponder. Despite Adrian Peterson going off in this one,
the Vikings will lose this one because of Ponder.
Bills vs Steelers (-3.5)
21-17 Bills
The Steelers were just plain
awful last week against the Patriots. Their defense looked like they had no
idea what was going on. Mike Tomlin will do his best to get his guys to perform
much better this Sunday but it won’t be enough. With EJ Manuel returning, the
Bills, who almost beat the Chiefs with Jeff Tuel at quarterback, will find a
way to win and cover the spread.
Bengals (-1.5) vs Ravens
21-13 Bengals
Even with Ray Rice in their
backfield, the Ravens haven’t figured out how to run the ball this season. The
Bengals will bounce back from their bad loss last week in Miami and grind this
one out. Bengals cover the spread in this AFC North matchup.
Lions vs Bears (PICK EM’)
28-21 Lions
Matthew Stafford and Calvin
Johnson should be able to exploit the Bears defense on Sunday. Lions will put
up some points early and then will be able to hold off Josh McCown and the
Bears defense for the win.
Eagles vs Packers (-1)
21-20 Packers
Even though it’s unclear who
the Packers quarterback is going to be on Sunday, I’m going with the Packers in
a tight one here. Nick Foles threw 7 TDs last week but I don’t see anything
close to a repeat performance this week against the Packers secondary. Packers
ride Eddie Lacy to the narrow win.
Rams vs Colts (-9.5)
27-14 Colts
It’s not always pretty, but
Andrew Luck has shown that he knows how to win. I don’t think he and TY Hilton
will have to pull of the come from behind performance they had on Sunday night
here. The Colts should be able to comfortably win this one at home and cover
the spread.
Jaguars vs Titans (-12)
24-10 Titans
Jake Locker and Chris Johnson
coming off a bye will have their way with the Jaguars defense just like every
opponent has this year. To make matters worse for the already struggling
Jaguars, they’re missing their biggest offensive threat, Justin Blackmon, for
the rest of the year. Titans roll and cover the spread.
Raiders vs Giants (-7.5)
27-24 Raiders
I might be in the minority
picking the Raiders here after their terrible showing last week but there’s
just something in me that feels that Terrelle Pryor is going to cause problems
for this Giants defense all day. This will be a tight as the Giants, coming off
a bye week, are going to look to extend their win streak in a final push for
the playoffs. In the end though, I see Pryor being a difference in this
matchup.
Seahawks (-6.5) vs Falcons
24-13 Seahawks
Even though the Seahawks have
had to use a goal line stand and overtime to win their last two games, I see
them going back to their ways in Atlanta. It’s falling apart for Matt Ryan and
the Falcons and I don’t see that changing this week. The Seahawks run game will
be effective as usual and I think even Russell Wilson will play well in this
one. Seahawks cover the spread.
Panthers vs 49ers(-6.5)
21-17 49ers
This is going to be the first
tough opponent the Panthers have faced in as long as I can remember. Now I’m
not taking anything away from them, Cam Newton has been playing like Cam Newton
from his rookie year and the defense is one of the best in the league. However,
the 49ers are adding Aldon Smith back into their lineup and I think San
Francisco will be able to use their run game to get the win at home.
Broncos (-7) vs Chargers
31-24 Broncos
The Chargers defense won’t be
able to stop Peyton Manning on Sunday and the Broncos should be able to win
this one on the road. Von Miller should cause problems all day for Phillip
Rivers and will cause Rivers into coughing up the ball at least once. Broncos
win by a touchdown.
Texans vs Cardinals (-2.5)
20-17 Cardinals
Case Keenum will be brought
back down to earth this week against the Arizona defense. It’s hard to figure
how the Texans will play this week while the health of Gary Kubiak is
uncertain. I’m picking the Cardinals soley because of their defense and because
they are at home. Cardinals win by 3 and cover the spread.
Cowboys vs Saints (-7)
35-28 Saints
At home, coming off a bad
loss to the Jets, the Saints will bounce back with a big win over the Cowboys.
Both teams have great offenses in this one and this will be a shootout for sure
but I see Drew Brees being able to lead the Saints in the end, as the Cowboys
will falter in the 4th as usual.
Dolphins (-3) vs Buccaneers
20-16 Buccaneers
The Dolphins are dealing with
a lot right now with the all the news coming out about Richie Incognito. And
while the Buccaneers still are without a win this year they showed some promise
last week against Seattle in a game they should’ve won. I think the Bucs will
finally put it together and get their first win this week.
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