Colts
(-3) vs. Titans
Colts
24-14 (Colts cover spread)
Indianapolis
suffered a shocking 30-point home defeat at the hands of WR Tavon Austin and
the Rams, while the Titans inexcusably lost at home to the Jags. The Colts are
the better team out of the two, even without star WR Reggie Wayne. Indy will be
able to lean on the QB Andrew Luck to WR T.Y. Hilton connection and get an
efficient day from RB Trent Richardson in order to keep backup QB Ryan
Fitzpatrick and RB Chris Johnson off the field.
Falcons
(-2) vs. Buccaneers
Buccaneers
23-16 (Buccaneers beat spread)
Tampa Bay got
their first win of the season Monday night against a distracted Dolphins group.
QB Mike Glennon continues to impress behind center and the Bucs defense has
played fairly well (14th overall) in limiting opponents. Before the
season started, most people would have said this game would be a blowout. Now,
it’s a meaningless game in the top heavy NFC South. I’ll ride the momentum
Tampa built on Monday night to get a second straight win at home against the
hapless Falcons.
Jets
vs. Bills (PICK ‘EM)
Jets
20-10 (Jets straight up)
The Jets come
off their bye and square up with a Bills team complaining about the toughness
of their schedule? Never heard that one before. The Jets have built a
reputation for being a hard-nosed, physical football team, especially on
defense, and will showcase that here against an inferior opponent. QB EJ Manuel
is a dual-threat and their running game is effective with RB’s C.J. Spiller and
Fred Jackson, but the Jets defense ranks 8th overall and will not be
overwhelmed with the Bills offense. If QB Geno Smith can play a mistake-free
four quarters, the Jets will come out of Buffalo with a nice division win to
keep pace with the Patriots.
Lions
(-2.5) vs. Steelers
Lions
27-24 (Lions cover spread)
This is a
pivotal game for both teams, as the Lions want to remain in control of the NFC
North and the Steelers need every win they can get to stay alive in the AFC
North. Pittsburgh took care of business at home against Buffalo and will look
to make it two in a row against a very tough opponent. We know about the lethal
passing attack of the Lions, but the ground game will play a big role in
getting this one on the road. QB Matt Stafford will make his plays in the
passing game, but RB Reggie Bush will play his part as well. QB Ben
Roethlisberger has gotten a little more help from his ground game in recent weeks,
and will need it again this week in order to keep that dangerous Lions offense
off the field. He won’t get it, as the 8th ranked Detroit rush
defense will make the Steelers offense one-dimensional and be a big factor in
the Lions moving to 7-3.
Redskins
vs. Eagles (-3.5)
Eagles
31-28 (Redskins beat spread)
16 TD’s and 0
INT’s. You would think I was reading Peyton Manning or Drew Brees’ stats. Those
in fact belong to the amazing season QB Nick Foles has put together. Foles
backed up his seven touchdown performance a couple of weeks ago by tossing
another three last week in beating the Rodgers-less Packers. This is a big one
in the NFC East, and the Eagles can really put the pressure on both Dallas and
New York in their showdown in Week 12 with a win over Washington this week.
These two teams both average over 400 yards per game and are not afraid to
throw the deep ball. This has the makings of a shootout with Foles leading the
home team to an important win in Philly.
Ravens
vs. Bears (-3)
Ravens
22-17 (Ravens beat spread)
I’m not a big
fan of the Chicago Bears with or without QB Jay Cutler. I just don’t think they
are a very good football team. Chicago certainly has weapons on offense, WR
Brandon Marshall and RB Matt Forte, and veterans on defense, LB Lance Briggs,
but I don’t trust them in big games. Baltimore survived a Hail Mary
overtime-forcer to get past division rival Cincinnati last week. At 4-5, they
have not had a great season up to this point, but are still very much alive in
the AFC North race. They only rank 29th in the NFL in total offense,
but improve on that at 15th in total defense. The Ravens are still
the champs, and they will continue to prove that the Bears are a bunch of
chumps on Sunday.
Browns
vs. Bengals (-5.5)
Bengals
29-24 (Browns beat spread)
Cincy very
nearly pulled off the comeback last Sunday, but still find themselves leading
the division by 1.5 games. Even though they’ve looked shaky the last two games,
the Bengals are still the most talented team in this division. WR A.J. Green
has already eclipsed the 1,000 yard receiving mark with six games to play. We
know what Cincy can do in the passing game, but the Browns rank 5th
in overall defense. This is a unit that has carried Cleveland this year, and
has to limit the Bengals in order to give QB Jason Campbell an opportunity to
make progress with WR Josh Gordon and TE Jordan Cameron. I’ll stick with Cincy
to win the game but won’t cover the spread.
Raiders
vs. Texans (-7.5)
Texans
30-21 (Texans cover spread)
The Raiders
couldn’t get out of their own way last Sunday in losing a sloppy game at the
Giants. QB Terrelle Pryor has to regain his ability to run the ball, because he
looked downright horrible through the air last week. Houston could have sneaked
out their last two games, and instead we’d be talking about a 4-5 team with
life as opposed to a 2-7 squad booking tee times. QB Case Keenum is a definite
bright spot for a Texans team who had caught the turnover bug early in the
season. How about the touchdown grabs from WR Andre Johnson last week? Scary
good. He’ll bring down another two this week and lead Houston to a much needed
victory.
Cardinals
(-7.5) vs. Jaguars
Cardinals
35-20 (Cardinals cover spread)
This is a huge
game for Arizona to take advantage of an opportunity to move to 6-4 in the
competitive NFC. While the individual and team stats don’t blow you away from
the Cards, they have put themselves in a nice position to snag a wild-card spot
in the NFC. WR Larry Fitzgerald is not having a huge season, partly because QB
Carson Palmer has not either. Arizona’s rush defense ranks 3rd in
the NFL, which is a troublesome category for the Jags, who need a big rushing
performance from QB Maurice Jones-Drew to stand a chance. It would be nice for
the Jags to string two in a row, but let’s be realistic and take the Cardinals.
Chargers
(-2.5) vs. Dolphins
Chargers
27-17 (Chargers cover spread)
San Diego
suffered a one-possession loss at home vs. Denver last week, which doesn’t look
too bad on paper. They were down 28-6 and came back to make it respectable at a
final score of 28-20. With both teams at 4-5 fighting for their wild-card
lives, this game will go a long way in determining if either team can find a way
into the postseason. San Diego’s offense ranks 7th in the NFL
compared to 30th for the Dolphins. The Chargers definitely have more
options on that side of the ball, along with a much better quarterback. I’ll go
with the better overall team with less controversy swinging around them.
Vikings
vs. Seahawks (-12.5)
Seahawks
28-10 (Seahawks cover spread)
Minnesota
overcame a 13-point 3rd quarter deficit to take down the visiting
Washington Redskins last Thursday night to notch their 2nd win of
the season. Seattle will have their hands full trying to contain RB Adrian
Peterson, who has amassed 786 yards and 9 TD’s so far this season. Their 3rd
ranked defense should be up to the task and they won’t have to worry about much
else with the Vikings offense. It is unsure of WR Jerome Simpson will play for
the Vikes after a DUI charge, which will tilt matters even more in Seattle’s
favor. The ‘Hawks will be able to focus on AP and hold him in check in
continuing to take advantage of a kind schedule the last few weeks.
49ers
vs. Saints (-3.5)
Saints
24-17 (Saints cover spread)
The Saints
embarrassed Dallas last Sunday night in a mightily convincing 49-17 home win.
QB Drew Brees threw for 392 yards and 4 TD’s in the game and RB Mark Ingram
looked impressive in his limited action. Don’t expect New Orleans to find as
much room through the air against the 6th ranked 49ers defense, who
only surrender 17.2 points per game. QB Colin Kaepernick only threw for 46
yards last Sunday vs. Carolina, and will surely need to have a big game in
order for the 49ers to keep pace with the high-octane Saints offense. This one
will not feature the same point total as last week in New Orleans, but the
Saints’ offense will be able to control the tempo of the game and their
improved 9th ranked defense will hold RB Frank Gore and the 49ers at
bay to secure a win.
Packers
vs. Giants (-5.5)
Giants
27-20 (Giants cover spread)
Don’t look now
but with a win this week the New York Giants will set up a huge NFC East
showdown (potentially for first place) with Dallas in Week 12. QB Eli Manning
and the Giants offense had an up-and-down performance a week ago vs. Oakland,
but the play of their 12th ranked defense is currently carrying the
team. Fill-in QB Scott Tolzien will have to step up for the Packers in a
hostile environment against a defense playing with confidence. QB Eli Manning
should be able to exploit the 21st ranked Green Bay pass defense and
RB Andre Brown will prove he can shoulder the load in the ground game once
again. The home team makes it four in a row with a seven-point win over the
Pack.
Chiefs
vs. Broncos (-7.5)
Broncos
26-19 (Chiefs beat spread)
The one we’ve
all been waiting for is finally here. This is by far the biggest game in the
NFL so far this season, and will be a tightly contested divisional contest. The
Chiefs and Broncos have different ways of winning, and it will be interesting
to see if the contrasting styles will cause problems for the opposing sides.
The Broncos rank 1st in total offense and the Chiefs rank 10th
in total defense, so something’s gotta give. RB Jamaal Charles has put together
an outstanding season on the ground and as a receiver (725 yards rushing, 389
yards receiving, 8 total TD’s), and QB Alex Smith has been an efficient game
manager. QB Peyton Manning’s dream season continued last week as he tossed
another 4 TD’s, but will face his sternest test yet against the Chiefs. The
Broncos won’t be able to explode on offense vs. this defense, but the
limitations of the Chiefs offense will be exposed. The home-field advantage
will prove to be the difference in this AFC powerhouse showdown.
Patriots
vs. Panthers (-1.5)
Panthers
20-16 (Panthers cover spread)
The Panthers are
one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of four straight. They’re riding
high after the one-point road win at San Francisco, in which their 2nd
ranked defense controlled play for the majority of the afternoon. The Patriots
will be up against it in Carolina with the Jets on their heels. QB Tom Brady
has not had his usual dominant season, albeit efficient in leading the Pats to
a 7-2 record. Some would expect Carolina to let down following that huge win
last week, but I believe they are built to last an entire season. QB Cam Newton
has become a team leader this season and is finally orchestrating a winning
season in Carolina. This will be a low-scoring affair on Monday night that will
have the Panthers move to 7-3 and closer to a playoff berth.
ADAM
Colts (-3) vs Titans
24-13 Colts
The Colts are pissed off
after the butt whipping they received from the St Louis Rams last week. Andrew
Luck and the Colts offense will bounce back in a big way and beat a Jake
Lockerless Titans team.
Jets vs Bills (-1)
17-13 Jets
The Jets defense will cause
all sorts of problems for EJ Manuel in this AFC East matchup. If Geno Smith can
play mistake free like he dead in week 9 against the Saints, the Jets will come
away with this one and will be on a two game winning streak for the first time
this year.
Ravens vs Bears (-3)
21-17 Ravens
Even though I like the way
Josh McCown has been playing, the Bears defense is too shaky for me especially
with the loss of Charles Tillman. This is by no means going to be an easy win
for Baltimore but I see their defense doing enough to pull out the win in
Chicago.
Browns vs Bengals (-5.5)
24-20 Bengals
Andy Dalton and the Bengals
have been shaky over the past two weeks. However, I have a feeling that this
week they will bounce back at home against the Browns. I see A.J. Green having
a monster game that will guide the Bengals to a 4 point victory.
Lions (-2.5) vs Steelers
31-10 Lions
I think the Lions are being
given way less points in the spread then they deserve. They have been on a roll
of late and the Steelers have just been plain awful. I see Calvin Johnson
burning the Steelers D for a few big plays on Sunday en route to a big win for
the Lions.
Raiders vs Texans (-7)
27-20 Texans
There’s going to be a lot of
emotion in Houston on Sunday with Gary Kubiak returning to the sidelines for
the first time since his mini stroke two weeks ago. Case Keenum will continue
to show why he could be the future quarterback for the Texans and Terrelle
Pryor will continue his terrible play. Texans win by a touchdown.
Cardinals (-7.5) vs Jaguars
24-10 Cardinals
I was surprised the Jaguars
got their first win last weekend. I will be shocked if they beat the Cardinals
this week. The Cardinals defense has been very strong lately and will continue
their great play against a Chad Henne run Jaguars offense. Cardinals bring the
Jaguars back down to reality.
Redskins vs Eagles (-3.5)
28-24 Eagles
It’s hard to pick against
Nick Foles right now. Foles still hasn’t thrown an interception this year. I
think Foles will continue his hot play this week especially being at home and
will guide the Eagles to a very important win over RGIII and the Redskins.
Falcons (-1.5) vs Buccaneers
17-14 Buccaneers
The Buccaneers aren’t the
best team the NFL has to offer, but I think they’re better than the Falcons
right now. The wheels have fallen off in Atlanta and I think the Bucs will ride
the momentum of their first win last week and figure out a way to get past the
Falcons at home.
Chargers (-2.5) vs Dolphins
24-17 Chargers
While both of these teams
aren’t in a great place right now, the Dolphins are in a far worse spot than
the Chargers. The Dolphins are a complete mess on and off the field and will
not be able to put together a good enough performance to get past Philip Rivers
and the Chargers. The Dolphins will continue to fall out of the wild card race
with this loss.
Packers vs Giants (-5.5)
21-17 Giants
This game would be a lot more
interesting if Aaron Rodgers were involved. Unfortunately for the Packers, they
won’t have their guy starting under center on Sunday and whether it is Matt
Flynn or Scott Tolzein, it won’t be enough. Giants will win their 4th
in a row.
Vikings vs Seahawks (-12.5)
31-13 Seahawks
The Seahawks are too good at
home to lose to this Vikings team. The Vikings offense will rely on Adrian
Peterson and he will do his thing as he always does but it won’t be enough to
get past the Seahawks and their home field advantage. The Seahawks will win
easily in Percy Harvin’s first game back this season.
49ers vs Saints (-3.5)
28-20 Saints
There’s no place like dome.
The 49ers are going to have a tough time slowing down Drew Brees and the Saints
offense. I can’t see Kaepernick keeping up with Drew Brees and especially with
this game being at the Superdome.
Chiefs vs Broncos (-7.5)
27-20 Broncos
I had a hard time with this
one but in the end I had to go with Peyton Manning over Alex Smith and the fact
that the game is in Denver. Even though Kansas City’s defense has been
outstanding this year Peyton Manning is my MVP and will show his worth Sunday
night. Denver’s D will apply its fair share of pressure on Alex Smith and with
Dwayne Bowe more interested in finding the nearest Sonic than making plays so
far this year, I think the Broncos will come away with a seven point victory.
Patriots vs Panthers (-1.5)
21-20 Panthers
The Panthers showed last
weekend that they are no joke. They got a quality win against a quality team in
the 49ers. This matchup against the Pats is going to be
even tougher than their win last week but the Panthers stellar defense will be
the deciding factor in this narrow victory.
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