Thursday, November 14, 2013

NFL Week 11 Predictions



MIKE

Colts (-3) vs. Titans

Colts 24-14 (Colts cover spread)

Indianapolis suffered a shocking 30-point home defeat at the hands of WR Tavon Austin and the Rams, while the Titans inexcusably lost at home to the Jags. The Colts are the better team out of the two, even without star WR Reggie Wayne. Indy will be able to lean on the QB Andrew Luck to WR T.Y. Hilton connection and get an efficient day from RB Trent Richardson in order to keep backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and RB Chris Johnson off the field.

Falcons (-2) vs. Buccaneers
Buccaneers 23-16 (Buccaneers beat spread)
Tampa Bay got their first win of the season Monday night against a distracted Dolphins group. QB Mike Glennon continues to impress behind center and the Bucs defense has played fairly well (14th overall) in limiting opponents. Before the season started, most people would have said this game would be a blowout. Now, it’s a meaningless game in the top heavy NFC South. I’ll ride the momentum Tampa built on Monday night to get a second straight win at home against the hapless Falcons.

Jets vs. Bills (PICK ‘EM)
Jets 20-10 (Jets straight up)
The Jets come off their bye and square up with a Bills team complaining about the toughness of their schedule? Never heard that one before. The Jets have built a reputation for being a hard-nosed, physical football team, especially on defense, and will showcase that here against an inferior opponent. QB EJ Manuel is a dual-threat and their running game is effective with RB’s C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, but the Jets defense ranks 8th overall and will not be overwhelmed with the Bills offense. If QB Geno Smith can play a mistake-free four quarters, the Jets will come out of Buffalo with a nice division win to keep pace with the Patriots.

Lions (-2.5) vs. Steelers
Lions 27-24 (Lions cover spread)
This is a pivotal game for both teams, as the Lions want to remain in control of the NFC North and the Steelers need every win they can get to stay alive in the AFC North. Pittsburgh took care of business at home against Buffalo and will look to make it two in a row against a very tough opponent. We know about the lethal passing attack of the Lions, but the ground game will play a big role in getting this one on the road. QB Matt Stafford will make his plays in the passing game, but RB Reggie Bush will play his part as well. QB Ben Roethlisberger has gotten a little more help from his ground game in recent weeks, and will need it again this week in order to keep that dangerous Lions offense off the field. He won’t get it, as the 8th ranked Detroit rush defense will make the Steelers offense one-dimensional and be a big factor in the Lions moving to 7-3.

Redskins vs. Eagles (-3.5)
Eagles 31-28 (Redskins beat spread)
16 TD’s and 0 INT’s. You would think I was reading Peyton Manning or Drew Brees’ stats. Those in fact belong to the amazing season QB Nick Foles has put together. Foles backed up his seven touchdown performance a couple of weeks ago by tossing another three last week in beating the Rodgers-less Packers. This is a big one in the NFC East, and the Eagles can really put the pressure on both Dallas and New York in their showdown in Week 12 with a win over Washington this week. These two teams both average over 400 yards per game and are not afraid to throw the deep ball. This has the makings of a shootout with Foles leading the home team to an important win in Philly.

Ravens vs. Bears (-3)
Ravens 22-17 (Ravens beat spread)
I’m not a big fan of the Chicago Bears with or without QB Jay Cutler. I just don’t think they are a very good football team. Chicago certainly has weapons on offense, WR Brandon Marshall and RB Matt Forte, and veterans on defense, LB Lance Briggs, but I don’t trust them in big games. Baltimore survived a Hail Mary overtime-forcer to get past division rival Cincinnati last week. At 4-5, they have not had a great season up to this point, but are still very much alive in the AFC North race. They only rank 29th in the NFL in total offense, but improve on that at 15th in total defense. The Ravens are still the champs, and they will continue to prove that the Bears are a bunch of chumps on Sunday.

Browns vs. Bengals (-5.5)
Bengals 29-24 (Browns beat spread)
Cincy very nearly pulled off the comeback last Sunday, but still find themselves leading the division by 1.5 games. Even though they’ve looked shaky the last two games, the Bengals are still the most talented team in this division. WR A.J. Green has already eclipsed the 1,000 yard receiving mark with six games to play. We know what Cincy can do in the passing game, but the Browns rank 5th in overall defense. This is a unit that has carried Cleveland this year, and has to limit the Bengals in order to give QB Jason Campbell an opportunity to make progress with WR Josh Gordon and TE Jordan Cameron. I’ll stick with Cincy to win the game but won’t cover the spread.

Raiders vs. Texans (-7.5)
Texans 30-21 (Texans cover spread)
The Raiders couldn’t get out of their own way last Sunday in losing a sloppy game at the Giants. QB Terrelle Pryor has to regain his ability to run the ball, because he looked downright horrible through the air last week. Houston could have sneaked out their last two games, and instead we’d be talking about a 4-5 team with life as opposed to a 2-7 squad booking tee times. QB Case Keenum is a definite bright spot for a Texans team who had caught the turnover bug early in the season. How about the touchdown grabs from WR Andre Johnson last week? Scary good. He’ll bring down another two this week and lead Houston to a much needed victory.

Cardinals (-7.5) vs. Jaguars
Cardinals 35-20 (Cardinals cover spread)
This is a huge game for Arizona to take advantage of an opportunity to move to 6-4 in the competitive NFC. While the individual and team stats don’t blow you away from the Cards, they have put themselves in a nice position to snag a wild-card spot in the NFC. WR Larry Fitzgerald is not having a huge season, partly because QB Carson Palmer has not either. Arizona’s rush defense ranks 3rd in the NFL, which is a troublesome category for the Jags, who need a big rushing performance from QB Maurice Jones-Drew to stand a chance. It would be nice for the Jags to string two in a row, but let’s be realistic and take the Cardinals.

Chargers (-2.5) vs. Dolphins
Chargers 27-17 (Chargers cover spread)
San Diego suffered a one-possession loss at home vs. Denver last week, which doesn’t look too bad on paper. They were down 28-6 and came back to make it respectable at a final score of 28-20. With both teams at 4-5 fighting for their wild-card lives, this game will go a long way in determining if either team can find a way into the postseason. San Diego’s offense ranks 7th in the NFL compared to 30th for the Dolphins. The Chargers definitely have more options on that side of the ball, along with a much better quarterback. I’ll go with the better overall team with less controversy swinging around them.

Vikings vs. Seahawks (-12.5)
Seahawks 28-10 (Seahawks cover spread)
Minnesota overcame a 13-point 3rd quarter deficit to take down the visiting Washington Redskins last Thursday night to notch their 2nd win of the season. Seattle will have their hands full trying to contain RB Adrian Peterson, who has amassed 786 yards and 9 TD’s so far this season. Their 3rd ranked defense should be up to the task and they won’t have to worry about much else with the Vikings offense. It is unsure of WR Jerome Simpson will play for the Vikes after a DUI charge, which will tilt matters even more in Seattle’s favor. The ‘Hawks will be able to focus on AP and hold him in check in continuing to take advantage of a kind schedule the last few weeks.

49ers vs. Saints (-3.5)
Saints 24-17 (Saints cover spread)
The Saints embarrassed Dallas last Sunday night in a mightily convincing 49-17 home win. QB Drew Brees threw for 392 yards and 4 TD’s in the game and RB Mark Ingram looked impressive in his limited action. Don’t expect New Orleans to find as much room through the air against the 6th ranked 49ers defense, who only surrender 17.2 points per game. QB Colin Kaepernick only threw for 46 yards last Sunday vs. Carolina, and will surely need to have a big game in order for the 49ers to keep pace with the high-octane Saints offense. This one will not feature the same point total as last week in New Orleans, but the Saints’ offense will be able to control the tempo of the game and their improved 9th ranked defense will hold RB Frank Gore and the 49ers at bay to secure a win.

Packers vs. Giants (-5.5)
Giants 27-20 (Giants cover spread)
Don’t look now but with a win this week the New York Giants will set up a huge NFC East showdown (potentially for first place) with Dallas in Week 12. QB Eli Manning and the Giants offense had an up-and-down performance a week ago vs. Oakland, but the play of their 12th ranked defense is currently carrying the team. Fill-in QB Scott Tolzien will have to step up for the Packers in a hostile environment against a defense playing with confidence. QB Eli Manning should be able to exploit the 21st ranked Green Bay pass defense and RB Andre Brown will prove he can shoulder the load in the ground game once again. The home team makes it four in a row with a seven-point win over the Pack.

Chiefs vs. Broncos (-7.5)
Broncos 26-19 (Chiefs beat spread)
The one we’ve all been waiting for is finally here. This is by far the biggest game in the NFL so far this season, and will be a tightly contested divisional contest. The Chiefs and Broncos have different ways of winning, and it will be interesting to see if the contrasting styles will cause problems for the opposing sides. The Broncos rank 1st in total offense and the Chiefs rank 10th in total defense, so something’s gotta give. RB Jamaal Charles has put together an outstanding season on the ground and as a receiver (725 yards rushing, 389 yards receiving, 8 total TD’s), and QB Alex Smith has been an efficient game manager. QB Peyton Manning’s dream season continued last week as he tossed another 4 TD’s, but will face his sternest test yet against the Chiefs. The Broncos won’t be able to explode on offense vs. this defense, but the limitations of the Chiefs offense will be exposed. The home-field advantage will prove to be the difference in this AFC powerhouse showdown.

Patriots vs. Panthers (-1.5)
Panthers 20-16 (Panthers cover spread)

The Panthers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of four straight. They’re riding high after the one-point road win at San Francisco, in which their 2nd ranked defense controlled play for the majority of the afternoon. The Patriots will be up against it in Carolina with the Jets on their heels. QB Tom Brady has not had his usual dominant season, albeit efficient in leading the Pats to a 7-2 record. Some would expect Carolina to let down following that huge win last week, but I believe they are built to last an entire season. QB Cam Newton has become a team leader this season and is finally orchestrating a winning season in Carolina. This will be a low-scoring affair on Monday night that will have the Panthers move to 7-3 and closer to a playoff berth. 

ADAM

Colts (-3) vs Titans

24-13 Colts

The Colts are pissed off after the butt whipping they received from the St Louis Rams last week. Andrew Luck and the Colts offense will bounce back in a big way and beat a Jake Lockerless Titans team.

Jets vs Bills (-1)

17-13 Jets

The Jets defense will cause all sorts of problems for EJ Manuel in this AFC East matchup. If Geno Smith can play mistake free like he dead in week 9 against the Saints, the Jets will come away with this one and will be on a two game winning streak for the first time this year.

Ravens vs Bears (-3)

21-17 Ravens

Even though I like the way Josh McCown has been playing, the Bears defense is too shaky for me especially with the loss of Charles Tillman. This is by no means going to be an easy win for Baltimore but I see their defense doing enough to pull out the win in Chicago.

Browns vs Bengals (-5.5)

24-20 Bengals

Andy Dalton and the Bengals have been shaky over the past two weeks. However, I have a feeling that this week they will bounce back at home against the Browns. I see A.J. Green having a monster game that will guide the Bengals to a 4 point victory.

Lions (-2.5) vs Steelers

31-10 Lions

I think the Lions are being given way less points in the spread then they deserve. They have been on a roll of late and the Steelers have just been plain awful. I see Calvin Johnson burning the Steelers D for a few big plays on Sunday en route to a big win for the Lions.

Raiders vs Texans (-7)

27-20 Texans

There’s going to be a lot of emotion in Houston on Sunday with Gary Kubiak returning to the sidelines for the first time since his mini stroke two weeks ago. Case Keenum will continue to show why he could be the future quarterback for the Texans and Terrelle Pryor will continue his terrible play. Texans win by a touchdown.

Cardinals (-7.5) vs Jaguars

24-10 Cardinals

I was surprised the Jaguars got their first win last weekend. I will be shocked if they beat the Cardinals this week. The Cardinals defense has been very strong lately and will continue their great play against a Chad Henne run Jaguars offense. Cardinals bring the Jaguars back down to reality.

Redskins vs Eagles (-3.5)

28-24 Eagles

It’s hard to pick against Nick Foles right now. Foles still hasn’t thrown an interception this year. I think Foles will continue his hot play this week especially being at home and will guide the Eagles to a very important win over RGIII and the Redskins.

Falcons (-1.5) vs Buccaneers
           
17-14 Buccaneers

The Buccaneers aren’t the best team the NFL has to offer, but I think they’re better than the Falcons right now. The wheels have fallen off in Atlanta and I think the Bucs will ride the momentum of their first win last week and figure out a way to get past the Falcons at home.

Chargers (-2.5) vs Dolphins

24-17 Chargers

While both of these teams aren’t in a great place right now, the Dolphins are in a far worse spot than the Chargers. The Dolphins are a complete mess on and off the field and will not be able to put together a good enough performance to get past Philip Rivers and the Chargers. The Dolphins will continue to fall out of the wild card race with this loss.

Packers vs Giants (-5.5)

21-17 Giants

This game would be a lot more interesting if Aaron Rodgers were involved. Unfortunately for the Packers, they won’t have their guy starting under center on Sunday and whether it is Matt Flynn or Scott Tolzein, it won’t be enough. Giants will win their 4th in a row.

Vikings vs Seahawks (-12.5)

31-13 Seahawks

The Seahawks are too good at home to lose to this Vikings team. The Vikings offense will rely on Adrian Peterson and he will do his thing as he always does but it won’t be enough to get past the Seahawks and their home field advantage. The Seahawks will win easily in Percy Harvin’s first game back this season.

49ers vs Saints (-3.5)

28-20 Saints

There’s no place like dome. The 49ers are going to have a tough time slowing down Drew Brees and the Saints offense. I can’t see Kaepernick keeping up with Drew Brees and especially with this game being at the Superdome.

Chiefs vs Broncos (-7.5)

27-20 Broncos

I had a hard time with this one but in the end I had to go with Peyton Manning over Alex Smith and the fact that the game is in Denver. Even though Kansas City’s defense has been outstanding this year Peyton Manning is my MVP and will show his worth Sunday night. Denver’s D will apply its fair share of pressure on Alex Smith and with Dwayne Bowe more interested in finding the nearest Sonic than making plays so far this year, I think the Broncos will come away with a seven point victory.

Patriots vs Panthers (-1.5)

21-20 Panthers

The Panthers showed last weekend that they are no joke. They got a quality win against a quality team in the 49ers. This matchup against the Pats is going to be even tougher than their win last week but the Panthers stellar defense will be the deciding factor in this narrow victory.


No comments:

Post a Comment