NFL Week 12 Predictions

MIKE

Saints (-9.5) vs. Falcons

Saints 31-17 (Saints cover spread)

The Saints managed to get by a tough 49ers group at home on a K Garrett Hartley last-second field-goal. QB Drew Brees had a decent day (for him) against a stout San Francisco defense, and got a little help from the refs on the LB Ahmad Brooks hit. The Falcons got handled by the lowly Bucs and fell into the cellar in the NFC South. Hard to imagine for a team that was the number one seed in the NFC last season, and has been a regular in the playoffs the last handful of years. A defense that gives up 41 points to the 2-8 Bucs should not be expected to hold their own against New Orleans.

Buccaneers vs. Lions (-8.5)

Lions 34-24 (Lions cover spread)

The Bucs are rebounding nicely the last two weeks, picking up wins against Miami and Atlanta, after that dreadful 0-8 start. QB Mike Glennon completed 87% of his passes last week and threw for a couple of scores. WR Vincent Jackson has been a big-time threat as of late, and will give the Lions secondary fits on Sunday. The Lions suffered a setback at Pittsburgh last week in a shootout loss, and will need to rebound quickly with the Bears at 6-4 as well. Their offense is too tough to handle at home for a team like Tampa Bay, and even though their defense can be suspect, expect them to get this win and move to 7-4.

Jaguars vs. Texans (-10)

Texans 27-14 (Texans cover spread)

You know it’s bad when you’re a 10-point underdog against a 2-8 team in Houston. That is the current situation the abysmal Jaguars find themselves in this week. The Jags only lost by 13 to the Cardinals last week, and were actually up by a touchdown after the first quarter. They failed to score a point the rest of the game. Houston has been one of the league’s major disappointments this season, despite the injuries to QB Matt Schaub and RB Arian Foster. Having said that, their defense is ranked 1^st in the NFL, only surrendering 286.1 YPG. Facing a 1-9 team that hasn’t had much of an offensive showing thus far should be the recipe for the Texans to get back in the ‘W’ column.

Vikings vs. Packers (-5)

Packers 23-20 (Vikings beat spread)

The loss of QB Aaron Rodgers has made the Pack into an average team at best. If RB Eddie Lacy isn’t able to get going on the ground, it puts way too much pressure on fill-in QB Scott Tolzien who does not have much NFL quarterback experience. That was evidenced by the 3 interceptions he tossed last week against the Giants, after Lacy was only able to rack up 27 yards rushing. The Vikings are not a good football team, but the vulnerability of Green Bay leads me to believe this one will remain close with the Cheeseheads finding a way in the end.

Chargers vs. Chiefs (-5.5)

Chiefs 24-20 (Chargers beat spread)

Kansas City’s unbeaten streak was halted by the Broncos last week in a game where the Chiefs offense never really got going. Denver’s defense played better than it had in previous games, and RB Jamaal Charles never really made an impression. The Chargers are in dire-straights and desperately need a win in order to keep pace in the wild-card standings. QB Philip Rivers will do his best to befuddle a tough Kansas City defense who was exposed for the first time all season last week at Denver. It will ultimately fall short, as Kansas City is one of the toughest places in the league to go get a win against a top-tier football team.

Panthers (-4.5) vs. Dolphins

Panthers 20-13 (Panthers cover spread)

Miami has managed to stay in the thick of things in the AFC wild card hunt, and will need a win this Sunday in order to further their playoff progress. The Panthers are one of the hottest teams in the league right now behind the play of QB Cam Newton and their 2^nd ranked defense. Miami hasn’t exactly been primarily focused on football as of late, but need to turn that focus on in order to prevail over a contender in Carolina. The Panthers will ride another quality performance from their defense and get an efficient day from Newton and RB DeAngelo Williams in order to keep pace with the Saints in the NFC South.

Steelers vs. Browns (-1)

Steelers 16-12 (Steelers beat spread)

Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger put together an outstanding performance last week to lead his group to a big home win against Detroit. Roethlisberger has thrown for an impressive 971 yards, 9 TD’s and 3 INT’s in the past three games to keep the Steelers alive in both the division and wild card race. Cleveland is also sitting at 4-6 very much in the conversation in the playoff hunt. Their 5^th ranked defense has carried them throughout much of the year with instability at the quarterback position. Expect a low-scoring, typical AFC North defensive struggle where the more-experienced Steelers will come out on top and beat the spread.

Bears vs. Rams (-1)

Bears 28-24 (Bears beat spread)

The Bears are tied atop the NFC North with the Lions at 6-4, while the Rams are fighting to keep their season alive at 4-6. Chicago is a soft 6-4, and with the impressive play of backup QB Josh McCown, will look to move to an even softer 7-4 this Sunday. The Rams do not possess the passing attack to truly worry the Bears, even though they are an unimpressively 24^th ranked bunch. RB Zac Stacy has been solid in replacing RB Stephen Jackson, but the loss of QB Sam Bradford will be too much for this team to overcome. Chicago will utilize its outside weapons in WR’s Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey to create mismatches downfield in order to scrape by St. Louis on the road.

Jets vs. Ravens (-3.5)

Ravens 21-14 (Ravens cover spread)

The defending champs are in the muck of a three-way tie for second place in the AFC North, but do own a pivotal win against the Bengals two weeks ago. They suffered a setback in a delayed game at Chicago last week, and eventually lost in overtime. The Jets were embarrassed at Buffalo, losing by 23 to the Bills behind four QB Geno Smith turnovers. Gang Green demoted WR Stephen Hill from the starting lineup for lack of production in the passing game. RB Ray Rice is desperate for a breakout performance this season, as he only has rushed for a measly 420 yards thus far. He won’t shred the Jets defense, but will have a solid day including a rushing touchdown. QB Joe Flacco will have his hands full with the 8^th ranked Jets defense, but look for some key receptions from veteran TE Dallas Clark in critical situations to help the Ravens stay involved in the playoff picture this week.

Titans (-1) vs. Raiders

Raiders 26-24 (Raiders beat spread)

This is a big game for both teams looking to stay alive in the AFC wild card hunt. At 4-6, both clubs are looking to inch closer to the sixth-seed while picking up a head-to-head win over one of their competitors. QB Matt McGloin was instrumental in tossing 3 TD’s last week to lead the Raiders to a victory at Houston in his first career start. He’ll need to keep that level up against the 10^th ranked Titan defense. RB Chris Johnson has been better in the last few weeks for the Titans, but still has not returned to the form we saw from him 4-5 years ago. Without a true no. 1 receiver the Titans are going to need a heavy dose of Johnson to keep McGloin and the Raiders offense off the field. This one will come down to the wire as the Raiders will be able to hold on at home.

Colts vs. Cardinals (-2.5)

Colts 34-28 (Colts beat spread)

The Cardinals are firmly in contention for an NFC wild card berth at 6-4, and the Colts are in complete control of the NFC South at 7-3. This should be an entertaining matchup of two potential playoff teams in Glendale, and both offenses will get an opportunity to strut their stuff. WR T.Y. Hilton will have to outperform WR’s Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald in order for the Colts to come away with a road win. Either team hasn’t been a huge threat on the ground, and the game will come down to which secondary can hold up better. I’ll also take QB Andrew Luck over QB Carson Palmer any day of the week, and Luck will be able to hold off Palmer and the Birds in the end to preserve the win.

Cowboys vs. Giants (-2.5)

Giants 33-26 (Giants cover spread)

Things are starting to get very interesting in the NFC East, with this pivotal game adding to the drama. The Giants have been taking care of business against lesser opponents with backup quarterbacks of late, but have looked very impressive on the defensive side of the ball while doing so. Dallas has had some extra time to prepare for their division rivals following a bye week, and will need to be at their top level in order to get by the G-Men and a raucous crowd at MetLife. QB Tony Romo has not come up strong in big games vs. the Giants in recent years, and, while this one isn’t to the degree of some of the others, it is still an important one in determining the outcome of the NFC East. QB Eli Manning will have a big game against a suspect Dallas secondary and New York’s defense will force a key turnover in the 4^th quarter to hold off the ‘Boys and make it five straight wins.

Broncos (-3) vs. Patriots

Broncos 37-27 (Broncos cover spread)

The Broncos made it known that they should not be overshadowed by the Chiefs or anyone else in the league last Sunday night. They will get another opportunity to do exactly that this week in Foxboro. Denver’s defense did a solid job in limiting the Chiefs’ offense last week, and QB Peyton Manning once again eclipsed 300 yards to lead the Broncos to a big win. The Patriots suffered a tough loss Monday night at Carolina, and felt as if they were robbed in the end when a pass-interference penalty flag was picked up on the last play of the game. The Pats still hold a two-game lead in the AFC East over the Jets and Dolphins, but the pressure will mount if they cannot escape this game with a win. Manning vs. Brady never disappoints, and this one will live up to the billing with exciting plays, big hits, and drama. I like Peyton’s team more than Tom’s this year, which will prove to be the difference as Denver moves to 10-1.

49ers (-6) vs. Redskins

49ers 22-16 (49ers cover spread)

This game would have been an intriguing matchup heading into the season, but with the Redskins all but eliminated from playoff contention, this is more about the need for the 49ers to get back on track than anything else. San Francisco is on the fringe of the playoff picture at 6-4, and need to treat each game as a playoff game from here on out. Last week’s loss at New Orleans was a tough pill to swallow, considering the late lead the 49ers squandered. Washington will come out and play hard, clinging to a flickering hope of staying alive in the NFC East. The matchup of QB Robert Griffin III vs. QB Colin Kaepernick will be an interesting dynamic, as neither quarterback has lived up to their rookie starting campaigns. Both teams will be desperate on Monday night, but the 49ers have more to play for at this stage. RB Frank Gore will outperform RB Alfred Morris and the 49ers defense will serve up a quality performance from start to finish to keep their nose in front in the wild card standings. 

ADAM

Saints (-10) vs Falcons

30-13 Saints

After last weeks loss to the Buccaneers I have a tough time seeing the Falcons winning another game this year. Saints continue to roll and come away with a big victory on Thursday Night Football.

Jets vs Ravens (-4)

21-17 Jets

The Jets and Geno Smith will continue their on again off again play and bounce back on Sunday against the Raven. The Jets defense will be all over Joe Flacco and wouldn’t it be great to see Ed Reed pick Flacco a few times. Jets win and beat the spread.

Steelers vs Browns (-1.5)

27-20 Steelers

Josh Gordon and Jason Campbell have been able to hook up for some big plays so far this season and they will continue to do the same this weekend. However, Ben Roethlisberger will continue to stay hot and will lead the Steelers to victory on the road.

Panthers (-4.5) vs Dolphins

27-14 Panthers

The Panthers made a statement on Monday night with their win over the Patriots. They are legit. The Panthers defense will have the Dolphins on their heels all day and will force a few turnovers. Panthers continue their hot streak and take care of the Dolphins in Miami.

Bears vs Rams (-1)

24-20 Bears

The Rams pulled off an amazing upset in week 10 against the Colts. They’ll put up a good fight but it won’t be enough. Josh McCown hasn’t thrown an interception yet this season as Jay Cutlers replacement and he will put up another strong performance leading the Rams to big road victory.

Buccaneers vs Lions (-8.5)

28-24 Lions

The Buccaneers have won two in a row and are feeling good about themselves. Mike Glennon and Vincent Jackson caused problems for the Falcons last week and if they are on the same page it could be a long day for Detroit. However, the Bucs will have trouble stopping the Lions pass attack as Calvin Johnson will lead the Lions to a narrow win.

Vikings vs Packers (-5)

23-20 Packers

This game doesn’t boast the greatest quarterbacks the NFL has to offer. I never thought I would say this but I see Scott Tolzein doing enough to lead the Packers past the Vikings at home this week.

Jaguars vs Texans (-10)

24-20 Texans

The Jaguars have been showing some life and have been looking a lot better than they were at the beginning of this year. Even though the Texans have their own issues, there’s just too much talent on this Houston team to lose to the Jaguars. Texans come away with a 4 point victory.

Chargers vs Chiefs (-5.5)

24-17 Chiefs

This is the perfect bounce back game for the Chiefs playing a division rival at home. The Chiefs defense and the home field advantage will be too much for San Diego to overcome. Kansas City bounces back from their first loss of the year.

Colts vs Cardinals (-1.5)

17-13 Colts

It might take another one of Andrew Luck’s inspirational speeches but the Colts will get past the Cardinals and their tough defense on the road. Look for Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton to connect multiple times Sunday.

Titans vs Raiders (-1)

21-17 Titans

With two backups under center in this matchup I’m going with the Titans here because of Chris Johnson. I won’t be watching this one but I expect both defenses to have a strong showing. Titans cover the spread.

Cowboys vs Giants (-2.5)

31-28 Cowboys

The NFC East has been almost impossible to predict so far this season. I feel like the Giants were 0-6 and then I blinked and they’re now 4-6. Even though they’ve won their past 4 I’m going with Dez Bryant and Tony Romo exploiting the Giants secondary and getting a big win in New Jersey.

Broncos (-3) vs Patriots

30-27 Broncos

This is the big game of the week. The Patriots coming off a controversial loss to the Panthers and the Broncos off a big win against the Chiefs. The Patriots are going to throw everything they have at Denver and this one will go down to the wire with Matt Prater hitting a late field goal to win.

49ers (-6) vs Redskins

27-20 49ers

RGIII will be able to keep this one close but in the end, the 49ers defense will too much for RGIII and the Redskins. The 49ers will bounce back from their last second loss to the Saints and the Redskins will have more questions to answer after this loss.

NFL Week 11 Predictions

MIKE

Colts (-3) vs. Titans

Colts 24-14 (Colts cover spread)

Indianapolis suffered a shocking 30-point home defeat at the hands of WR Tavon Austin and the Rams, while the Titans inexcusably lost at home to the Jags. The Colts are the better team out of the two, even without star WR Reggie Wayne. Indy will be able to lean on the QB Andrew Luck to WR T.Y. Hilton connection and get an efficient day from RB Trent Richardson in order to keep backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and RB Chris Johnson off the field.

Falcons (-2) vs. Buccaneers

Buccaneers 23-16 (Buccaneers beat spread)

Tampa Bay got their first win of the season Monday night against a distracted Dolphins group. QB Mike Glennon continues to impress behind center and the Bucs defense has played fairly well (14^th overall) in limiting opponents. Before the season started, most people would have said this game would be a blowout. Now, it’s a meaningless game in the top heavy NFC South. I’ll ride the momentum Tampa built on Monday night to get a second straight win at home against the hapless Falcons.

Jets vs. Bills (PICK ‘EM)

Jets 20-10 (Jets straight up)

The Jets come off their bye and square up with a Bills team complaining about the toughness of their schedule? Never heard that one before. The Jets have built a reputation for being a hard-nosed, physical football team, especially on defense, and will showcase that here against an inferior opponent. QB EJ Manuel is a dual-threat and their running game is effective with RB’s C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, but the Jets defense ranks 8^th overall and will not be overwhelmed with the Bills offense. If QB Geno Smith can play a mistake-free four quarters, the Jets will come out of Buffalo with a nice division win to keep pace with the Patriots.

Lions (-2.5) vs. Steelers

Lions 27-24 (Lions cover spread)

This is a pivotal game for both teams, as the Lions want to remain in control of the NFC North and the Steelers need every win they can get to stay alive in the AFC North. Pittsburgh took care of business at home against Buffalo and will look to make it two in a row against a very tough opponent. We know about the lethal passing attack of the Lions, but the ground game will play a big role in getting this one on the road. QB Matt Stafford will make his plays in the passing game, but RB Reggie Bush will play his part as well. QB Ben Roethlisberger has gotten a little more help from his ground game in recent weeks, and will need it again this week in order to keep that dangerous Lions offense off the field. He won’t get it, as the 8^th ranked Detroit rush defense will make the Steelers offense one-dimensional and be a big factor in the Lions moving to 7-3.

Redskins vs. Eagles (-3.5)

Eagles 31-28 (Redskins beat spread)

16 TD’s and 0 INT’s. You would think I was reading Peyton Manning or Drew Brees’ stats. Those in fact belong to the amazing season QB Nick Foles has put together. Foles backed up his seven touchdown performance a couple of weeks ago by tossing another three last week in beating the Rodgers-less Packers. This is a big one in the NFC East, and the Eagles can really put the pressure on both Dallas and New York in their showdown in Week 12 with a win over Washington this week. These two teams both average over 400 yards per game and are not afraid to throw the deep ball. This has the makings of a shootout with Foles leading the home team to an important win in Philly.

Ravens vs. Bears (-3)

Ravens 22-17 (Ravens beat spread)

I’m not a big fan of the Chicago Bears with or without QB Jay Cutler. I just don’t think they are a very good football team. Chicago certainly has weapons on offense, WR Brandon Marshall and RB Matt Forte, and veterans on defense, LB Lance Briggs, but I don’t trust them in big games. Baltimore survived a Hail Mary overtime-forcer to get past division rival Cincinnati last week. At 4-5, they have not had a great season up to this point, but are still very much alive in the AFC North race. They only rank 29^th in the NFL in total offense, but improve on that at 15^th in total defense. The Ravens are still the champs, and they will continue to prove that the Bears are a bunch of chumps on Sunday.

Browns vs. Bengals (-5.5)

Bengals 29-24 (Browns beat spread)

Cincy very nearly pulled off the comeback last Sunday, but still find themselves leading the division by 1.5 games. Even though they’ve looked shaky the last two games, the Bengals are still the most talented team in this division. WR A.J. Green has already eclipsed the 1,000 yard receiving mark with six games to play. We know what Cincy can do in the passing game, but the Browns rank 5^th in overall defense. This is a unit that has carried Cleveland this year, and has to limit the Bengals in order to give QB Jason Campbell an opportunity to make progress with WR Josh Gordon and TE Jordan Cameron. I’ll stick with Cincy to win the game but won’t cover the spread.

Raiders vs. Texans (-7.5)

Texans 30-21 (Texans cover spread)

The Raiders couldn’t get out of their own way last Sunday in losing a sloppy game at the Giants. QB Terrelle Pryor has to regain his ability to run the ball, because he looked downright horrible through the air last week. Houston could have sneaked out their last two games, and instead we’d be talking about a 4-5 team with life as opposed to a 2-7 squad booking tee times. QB Case Keenum is a definite bright spot for a Texans team who had caught the turnover bug early in the season. How about the touchdown grabs from WR Andre Johnson last week? Scary good. He’ll bring down another two this week and lead Houston to a much needed victory.

Cardinals (-7.5) vs. Jaguars

Cardinals 35-20 (Cardinals cover spread)

This is a huge game for Arizona to take advantage of an opportunity to move to 6-4 in the competitive NFC. While the individual and team stats don’t blow you away from the Cards, they have put themselves in a nice position to snag a wild-card spot in the NFC. WR Larry Fitzgerald is not having a huge season, partly because QB Carson Palmer has not either. Arizona’s rush defense ranks 3^rd in the NFL, which is a troublesome category for the Jags, who need a big rushing performance from QB Maurice Jones-Drew to stand a chance. It would be nice for the Jags to string two in a row, but let’s be realistic and take the Cardinals.

Chargers (-2.5) vs. Dolphins

Chargers 27-17 (Chargers cover spread)

San Diego suffered a one-possession loss at home vs. Denver last week, which doesn’t look too bad on paper. They were down 28-6 and came back to make it respectable at a final score of 28-20. With both teams at 4-5 fighting for their wild-card lives, this game will go a long way in determining if either team can find a way into the postseason. San Diego’s offense ranks 7^th in the NFL compared to 30^th for the Dolphins. The Chargers definitely have more options on that side of the ball, along with a much better quarterback. I’ll go with the better overall team with less controversy swinging around them.

Vikings vs. Seahawks (-12.5)

Seahawks 28-10 (Seahawks cover spread)

Minnesota overcame a 13-point 3^rd quarter deficit to take down the visiting Washington Redskins last Thursday night to notch their 2^nd win of the season. Seattle will have their hands full trying to contain RB Adrian Peterson, who has amassed 786 yards and 9 TD’s so far this season. Their 3^rd ranked defense should be up to the task and they won’t have to worry about much else with the Vikings offense. It is unsure of WR Jerome Simpson will play for the Vikes after a DUI charge, which will tilt matters even more in Seattle’s favor. The ‘Hawks will be able to focus on AP and hold him in check in continuing to take advantage of a kind schedule the last few weeks.

49ers vs. Saints (-3.5)

Saints 24-17 (Saints cover spread)

The Saints embarrassed Dallas last Sunday night in a mightily convincing 49-17 home win. QB Drew Brees threw for 392 yards and 4 TD’s in the game and RB Mark Ingram looked impressive in his limited action. Don’t expect New Orleans to find as much room through the air against the 6^th ranked 49ers defense, who only surrender 17.2 points per game. QB Colin Kaepernick only threw for 46 yards last Sunday vs. Carolina, and will surely need to have a big game in order for the 49ers to keep pace with the high-octane Saints offense. This one will not feature the same point total as last week in New Orleans, but the Saints’ offense will be able to control the tempo of the game and their improved 9^th ranked defense will hold RB Frank Gore and the 49ers at bay to secure a win.

Packers vs. Giants (-5.5)

Giants 27-20 (Giants cover spread)

Don’t look now but with a win this week the New York Giants will set up a huge NFC East showdown (potentially for first place) with Dallas in Week 12. QB Eli Manning and the Giants offense had an up-and-down performance a week ago vs. Oakland, but the play of their 12^th ranked defense is currently carrying the team. Fill-in QB Scott Tolzien will have to step up for the Packers in a hostile environment against a defense playing with confidence. QB Eli Manning should be able to exploit the 21^st ranked Green Bay pass defense and RB Andre Brown will prove he can shoulder the load in the ground game once again. The home team makes it four in a row with a seven-point win over the Pack.

Chiefs vs. Broncos (-7.5)

Broncos 26-19 (Chiefs beat spread)

The one we’ve all been waiting for is finally here. This is by far the biggest game in the NFL so far this season, and will be a tightly contested divisional contest. The Chiefs and Broncos have different ways of winning, and it will be interesting to see if the contrasting styles will cause problems for the opposing sides. The Broncos rank 1^st in total offense and the Chiefs rank 10^th in total defense, so something’s gotta give. RB Jamaal Charles has put together an outstanding season on the ground and as a receiver (725 yards rushing, 389 yards receiving, 8 total TD’s), and QB Alex Smith has been an efficient game manager. QB Peyton Manning’s dream season continued last week as he tossed another 4 TD’s, but will face his sternest test yet against the Chiefs. The Broncos won’t be able to explode on offense vs. this defense, but the limitations of the Chiefs offense will be exposed. The home-field advantage will prove to be the difference in this AFC powerhouse showdown.

Patriots vs. Panthers (-1.5)

Panthers 20-16 (Panthers cover spread)

The Panthers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of four straight. They’re riding high after the one-point road win at San Francisco, in which their 2^nd ranked defense controlled play for the majority of the afternoon. The Patriots will be up against it in Carolina with the Jets on their heels. QB Tom Brady has not had his usual dominant season, albeit efficient in leading the Pats to a 7-2 record. Some would expect Carolina to let down following that huge win last week, but I believe they are built to last an entire season. QB Cam Newton has become a team leader this season and is finally orchestrating a winning season in Carolina. This will be a low-scoring affair on Monday night that will have the Panthers move to 7-3 and closer to a playoff berth. 

ADAM

Colts (-3) vs Titans

24-13 Colts

The Colts are pissed off after the butt whipping they received from the St Louis Rams last week. Andrew Luck and the Colts offense will bounce back in a big way and beat a Jake Lockerless Titans team.

Jets vs Bills (-1)

17-13 Jets

The Jets defense will cause all sorts of problems for EJ Manuel in this AFC East matchup. If Geno Smith can play mistake free like he dead in week 9 against the Saints, the Jets will come away with this one and will be on a two game winning streak for the first time this year.

Ravens vs Bears (-3)

21-17 Ravens

Even though I like the way Josh McCown has been playing, the Bears defense is too shaky for me especially with the loss of Charles Tillman. This is by no means going to be an easy win for Baltimore but I see their defense doing enough to pull out the win in Chicago.

Browns vs Bengals (-5.5)

24-20 Bengals

Andy Dalton and the Bengals have been shaky over the past two weeks. However, I have a feeling that this week they will bounce back at home against the Browns. I see A.J. Green having a monster game that will guide the Bengals to a 4 point victory.

Lions (-2.5) vs Steelers

31-10 Lions

I think the Lions are being given way less points in the spread then they deserve. They have been on a roll of late and the Steelers have just been plain awful. I see Calvin Johnson burning the Steelers D for a few big plays on Sunday en route to a big win for the Lions.

Raiders vs Texans (-7)

27-20 Texans

There’s going to be a lot of emotion in Houston on Sunday with Gary Kubiak returning to the sidelines for the first time since his mini stroke two weeks ago. Case Keenum will continue to show why he could be the future quarterback for the Texans and Terrelle Pryor will continue his terrible play. Texans win by a touchdown.

Cardinals (-7.5) vs Jaguars

24-10 Cardinals

I was surprised the Jaguars got their first win last weekend. I will be shocked if they beat the Cardinals this week. The Cardinals defense has been very strong lately and will continue their great play against a Chad Henne run Jaguars offense. Cardinals bring the Jaguars back down to reality.

Redskins vs Eagles (-3.5)

28-24 Eagles

It’s hard to pick against Nick Foles right now. Foles still hasn’t thrown an interception this year. I think Foles will continue his hot play this week especially being at home and will guide the Eagles to a very important win over RGIII and the Redskins.

Falcons (-1.5) vs Buccaneers

           

17-14 Buccaneers

The Buccaneers aren’t the best team the NFL has to offer, but I think they’re better than the Falcons right now. The wheels have fallen off in Atlanta and I think the Bucs will ride the momentum of their first win last week and figure out a way to get past the Falcons at home.

Chargers (-2.5) vs Dolphins

24-17 Chargers

While both of these teams aren’t in a great place right now, the Dolphins are in a far worse spot than the Chargers. The Dolphins are a complete mess on and off the field and will not be able to put together a good enough performance to get past Philip Rivers and the Chargers. The Dolphins will continue to fall out of the wild card race with this loss.

Packers vs Giants (-5.5)

21-17 Giants

This game would be a lot more interesting if Aaron Rodgers were involved. Unfortunately for the Packers, they won’t have their guy starting under center on Sunday and whether it is Matt Flynn or Scott Tolzein, it won’t be enough. Giants will win their 4^th in a row.

Vikings vs Seahawks (-12.5)

31-13 Seahawks

The Seahawks are too good at home to lose to this Vikings team. The Vikings offense will rely on Adrian Peterson and he will do his thing as he always does but it won’t be enough to get past the Seahawks and their home field advantage. The Seahawks will win easily in Percy Harvin’s first game back this season.

49ers vs Saints (-3.5)

28-20 Saints

There’s no place like dome. The 49ers are going to have a tough time slowing down Drew Brees and the Saints offense. I can’t see Kaepernick keeping up with Drew Brees and especially with this game being at the Superdome.

Chiefs vs Broncos (-7.5)

27-20 Broncos

I had a hard time with this one but in the end I had to go with Peyton Manning over Alex Smith and the fact that the game is in Denver. Even though Kansas City’s defense has been outstanding this year Peyton Manning is my MVP and will show his worth Sunday night. Denver’s D will apply its fair share of pressure on Alex Smith and with Dwayne Bowe more interested in finding the nearest Sonic than making plays so far this year, I think the Broncos will come away with a seven point victory.

Patriots vs Panthers (-1.5)

21-20 Panthers

The Panthers showed last weekend that they are no joke. They got a quality win against a quality team in the 49ers. This matchup against the Pats is going to be even tougher than their win last week but the Panthers stellar defense will be the deciding factor in this narrow victory.

NFL Week 10 Predictions

MIKE

WAS (-2.5) vs. MIN

WAS 30-21 (WAS covers spread)

The ‘Skins are coming off a huge home win vs. San Diego last week, where they survived a last second goal line situation to force overtime and eventually win it in the extra period. Washington is averaging 407.6 YPG (5^th in NFL), and doing it both on the ground and through the air. Redskins QB Robert Griffin III has been playing better week after week, and has the 3-5 ‘Skins right in the thick of things in the mediocre NFC East. The Vikings have competed hard the last two weeks vs. Green Bay and Dallas, so don’t expect them to lay down this week. The main issue for them is the lack of a competent quarterback, which will be the difference in this matchup.

SEA (-6) vs. ATL

SEA 25-23 (ATL beats spread)

The Seattle Seahawks are sitting pretty at 8-1 as the top seed in the NFC. However, they have not looked impressive of late, narrowly squeaking by the measly Rams and Bucs. RB Marshawn Lynch has put in some hard running for them and is compiling a solid year with 726 rushing yards and 6 TD’s through 9 games. Atlanta’s leading WR is still Julio Jones who has been out for a number of games, which is of some concern. They still rank 5^th in the NFL in passing offense (289.2 YPG), but without much of a running game the pressure on QB Matt Ryan to produce has resulted in 7 INT’s in the past two games. The Falcons always play well at home, and combined with the recent struggles of Seattle, this one will be close throughout with the ‘Hawks coming away with another close victory.

CIN (-1.5) vs. BAL

CIN 24-21 (CIN covers spread)

The Bengals dropped a tough one on the road last week vs. Miami, with an overtime game ending on safety for only the third time in NFL history. They almost overcame QB Andy Dalton’s rough night (3 INT), and pulled it out on Thursday night, but will be able to rebound nicely this week against a struggling Ravens unit. QB Joe Flacco has not lived up to his $120.6 million dollar contract thus far, and RB Ray Rice has had his most pedestrian year as a pro (2.7 YPC). Baltimore is 29^th in the league in rushing offense (71.6 YPG) and Cincinnati is 7^th in passing offense (273.4 YPG). Baltimore will not be able to generate a running game, which will allow Dalton to remain on the field and air it out to his plethora of WR and TE options. Regardless, AFC North battles are always tough, physical encounters. Don’t expect any different here, but trust the Bengals to make enough plays in the passing game to get by Baltimore.

DET vs. CHI (PICK EM’)

DET 34-27 (DET wins straight up)

The Lions are coming off their bye after that exhilarating win vs. Dallas a couple of weeks ago, while Chicago caught a break with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers going down on Monday night to help them secure a divisional win. There’s a three-way tie atop the NFC North, and it will be interesting to see if either of these two teams can take advantage of Green Bay’s injuries and gain control of this division. Bears QB Josh McCown looked impressive vs. the Pack on Monday night, especially in orchestrating a 9 and a half minute 4^th quarter drive to seal the game. QB Jay Culter said he’s ready to return, which should be a boost for the Bears this Sunday. Even though this game is at Soldier Field, I still like the Lions more than the Bears to break open this division. Their offense is downright scary at times, ranking 3^rd in the NFL (416 YPG), and they are able to do it through the air and on the ground with RB Reggie Bush. This should be a high-octane matchup of two of the league’s premier receivers in Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall, who will both eclipse the 120 yard mark. Look for the Lions to outgain the Bears and force a critical 4^th quarter turnover to come away with this one.

PHI vs. GB (-1)

PHI 26-16 (PHI beats spread)

Philadelphia QB Nick Foles did his best Peyton Manning impersonation last week in leading the Eagles to a west coast drubbing vs. Oakland. Foles threw for 7 TD’s and distributed them fairly well (3 to Riley Cooper and 1 each to Brent Celek, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, and Zach Ertz). Green Bay had suffered devastating injuries previously this season, but none worse than the one they endured Monday night. The loss of QB Aaron Rodgers is more detrimental to the Pack than arguably any injury to another player to any team in the league. He facilitates their offense and allows them to be a dual threat both in the passing game and on the ground. QB Seneca Wallace will have to do his best to keep the Pack relevant in the playoff race for the next 4-6 weeks. I see this game being tightly contested, but the limited nature of the Green Bay offense will be the difference vs. an Eagle team who showed explosiveness on that side of the ball a week ago.

STL vs. IND (-9.5)

IND 36-22 (IND covers spread)

The Colts overcame an 18-point halftime deficit last Sunday night to edge division rival Houston. The loss of WR Reggie Wayne seemed to impact them only for a half, as their passing game got going in the second half (mainly the 4^th quarter). While QB Andrew Luck hasn’t racked up huge yardage totals, he has a 13 TD to 3 INT ratio and a solid 91.5 QB rating. He threw a beauty game-winning touchdown to WR T.Y. Hilton vs. the Texans and has been mistake free for much of the season. Conversely, the Rams played Tennessee pretty tough at home last week, losing by a touchdown behind another big game from RB Zac Stacy (27 carries, 127 yds, 2 TD’s). They have slipped a bit in the last few weeks and will continue to fall against one of the best teams in the AFC.

OAK vs. NYG (-7.5)

NYG 31-24 (OAK beats spread)

The Giants are coming off their bye to face an Oakland team looking to rebound from a beat down last week. This is a must-win for Big Blue to keep pace in the NFC East, and QB Eli Manning is poised to keep his sound play going for the third straight game. The Raiders pass defense got exposed in a major way last week, giving up a shocking 7 TD’s to Eagles QB Nick Foles. QB Terrelle Pryor did not put up great passing numbers last week and tossed 2 INT’s in the loss, but maintains his effectiveness on the ground as Oakland’s leading rusher (485 yds, 1 TD). Giants RB David Wilson looks to be headed to the injured reserve list, which means RB Peyton Hillis will have to continue to shoulder much of the load. Manning should be able to exploit Oakland’s suspect pass defense, and the Giants defense will be able to manage Pryor and the Oakland running game in order to come up with a win.

BUF vs. PIT (-3)

BUF 20-17 (BUF beats spread)

Bills QB E.J. Manuel returns to face a Steelers defense that was torched by New England a week ago. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has not had much help in getting his team on track, as the defense has looked old and the running game has struggled to pick up steam. This is a season on-the-line game for the Steelers, who must string wins together to have any hope of remaining in contention. If not for a few costly mistakes (100 yd INT returned for a touchdown), the Bills may have actually been able to dethrone the Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeatens last week. Manuel’s return coupled with their effective ground game should have the Bills move to 4-6 after this AFC matchup.

JAC vs. TEN (-12)

TEN 17-6 (TEN covers spread)

Titans RB Chris Johnson came to life last week vs. the Rams, rushing for 150 yards and 2 scores in the team win. For the Jags, the suspension of WR Justin Blackmon takes away a big option in the passing game, while RB Maurice Jones-Drew remains highly ineffective thus far. They rank 31^st in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 66.4, and do not do a whole lot more through the air (220.1 YPG, 19^th in NFL). This combination does not lead me to believe that they can hurt a solid Titans defense that need to continue to play well in order for them to compete for a wild card berth. Expect RB Chris Johnson to duplicate his performance from last week and lead Tennessee to a victory that will move them to 5-4.

CAR vs. SF (-6.5)

SF 27-21 (CAR beats spread)

This is an intriguing matchup in the NFC of two teams in great position to capture both wild card spots. The 49ers come off their bye to a stern test at home from a Carolina bunch that has been hot while riding the back of QB Cam Newton and a stout defense to three consecutive wins. San Francisco has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of five straight before their bye week. This is also a matchup of two of the premier read-option, running quarterbacks in the league, which should create additional problems for the opposing defenses. The 49ers have more options in the passing game than Carolina, which should prove to be the difference in this game. Getting WR Mario Manningham back to go along with TE Vernon Davis and WR Anquan Boldin will prove to be too much even for the 3^rd ranked Carolina defense to handle.

HOU vs. ARI (-2.5)

HOU 35-31 (HOU beats spread)

Houston suffered a very tough loss last Sunday night, not only on the field but with the collapse of head coach Gary Kubiak. Wade Phillips will fill-in for Kubiak until he is ready and fit to return to his coaching duties. Luckily for Houston, Phillips has head-coaching experience with the Cowboys, and should be able to take over the reins with little issue. Texans QB Case Keenum has performed admirably in his replacement of QB Matt Schaub, and will continue to build on that this week, albeit against a top secondary in the Cardinals. Houston will have to lean on him heavily with the absence of RB Arian Foster. Arizona is still in the hunt in the NFC, presumably for a wild card berth, and every game counts. QB Carson Palmer will look to WR’s Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald to be difference makers this Sunday, but they will also need to trust that Palmer can avoid mistakes and get the job done. He will make plays through the air, but ultimately succumb to a young quarterback who has not thrown an interception since he has been inserted into the starting role.

DEN (-7) vs. SD

DEN 38-35 (SD beats spread)

Denver comes off their bye as a second-place 7-1 team due to the outstanding start by the Kansas City Chiefs. Their defense has raised serious questions as being able to hold up throughout the rest of the season and playoffs. Most people would dream of performing at this level in their careers at 37-years old, as Denver QB Peyton Manning has tossed 29 TD’s to 6 INT’s and thrown for 2,919 yards through the MIDWAY point of the season. I put midway in caps because most NFL quarterbacks would take those numbers for a full season in a heartbeat. Denver’s number 1 ranked offense will have its way with division rival San Diego, but QB Phillip Rivers and his offense will play their part in this offensive struggle. Rivers has thrown for 17 TD’s to 7 INT’s and 2,473 yards thus far, and will have another strong outing against the 30^th ranked Broncos pass defense. Rivers will inevitably come up a little short and be outdone in a valiant effort by Peyton this Sunday.

DAL vs. NO (-7)

NO 35-26 (NO covers spread)

Dallas hasn’t showed us much in the last couple of weeks, inexcusably dropping a last-second game to Detroit and nearly losing at home to the woeful Vikings. This does not sound like a good recipe for going up against a Saints team, coming off a tough loss, back in their beloved dome. QB Drew Brees should be able to throw for major yardage and scores against a Dallas defense who ranks 31^st overall. Dallas QB Tony Romo will contribute to the show Sunday night and toss a couple of scores, but will not be able to prevent WR Dez Bryant from chewing him out on the sidelines. Even though New Orleans has not had a consistent running attack, I think the Brees to TE Jimmy Graham connection will cause big problems for the Dallas secondary. The improved Saint defense will be able to limit the Cowboys to an extent and Brees and that passing game will be in full force Sunday night to lead the Saints to a bounce-back win.

MIA (-3) vs. TB

MIA 16-14 (TB beats spread)

Let’s see if Miami can manage to put all of the distractions aside and capitalize on an opportunity to move above .500. Despite the sideshow, Miami is a better football team than Tampa Bay (who isn’t?), and should find a way to win this game. However, the Bucs acquitted themselves nicely last week in forcing the Seahawks into overtime. QB Mike Glennon played very well and had the Bucs in strong position to cause the upset of the season. Tampa will ride the back of RB Mike James and hope to get another strong outing from Glennon to surprise the ‘Fins. QB Ryan Tannehill won’t light up the stat sheet, but will get WR’s Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline involved enough to escape with a win.

ADAM

Redskins (-2.5) vs Vikings

21-13 Redskins

The Redskins have been improving every week and could possibly be on their way to making the push for the playoffs they made last year. RGIII is looking more like RGIII and well the Vikings have Christian Ponder. Despite Adrian Peterson going off in this one, the Vikings will lose this one because of Ponder.

Bills vs Steelers (-3.5)

21-17 Bills

The Steelers were just plain awful last week against the Patriots. Their defense looked like they had no idea what was going on. Mike Tomlin will do his best to get his guys to perform much better this Sunday but it won’t be enough. With EJ Manuel returning, the Bills, who almost beat the Chiefs with Jeff Tuel at quarterback, will find a way to win and cover the spread.

Bengals (-1.5) vs Ravens

21-13 Bengals

Even with Ray Rice in their backfield, the Ravens haven’t figured out how to run the ball this season. The Bengals will bounce back from their bad loss last week in Miami and grind this one out. Bengals cover the spread in this AFC North matchup.

Lions vs Bears (PICK EM’)

28-21 Lions

Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson should be able to exploit the Bears defense on Sunday. Lions will put up some points early and then will be able to hold off Josh McCown and the Bears defense for the win.

Eagles vs Packers (-1)

21-20 Packers

Even though it’s unclear who the Packers quarterback is going to be on Sunday, I’m going with the Packers in a tight one here. Nick Foles threw 7 TDs last week but I don’t see anything close to a repeat performance this week against the Packers secondary. Packers ride Eddie Lacy to the narrow win.

Rams vs Colts (-9.5)

27-14 Colts

It’s not always pretty, but Andrew Luck has shown that he knows how to win. I don’t think he and TY Hilton will have to pull of the come from behind performance they had on Sunday night here. The Colts should be able to comfortably win this one at home and cover the spread.

Jaguars vs Titans (-12)

24-10 Titans

Jake Locker and Chris Johnson coming off a bye will have their way with the Jaguars defense just like every opponent has this year. To make matters worse for the already struggling Jaguars, they’re missing their biggest offensive threat, Justin Blackmon, for the rest of the year. Titans roll and cover the spread.

Raiders vs Giants (-7.5)

27-24 Raiders

I might be in the minority picking the Raiders here after their terrible showing last week but there’s just something in me that feels that Terrelle Pryor is going to cause problems for this Giants defense all day. This will be a tight as the Giants, coming off a bye week, are going to look to extend their win streak in a final push for the playoffs. In the end though, I see Pryor being a difference in this matchup.

Seahawks (-6.5) vs Falcons

24-13 Seahawks

Even though the Seahawks have had to use a goal line stand and overtime to win their last two games, I see them going back to their ways in Atlanta. It’s falling apart for Matt Ryan and the Falcons and I don’t see that changing this week. The Seahawks run game will be effective as usual and I think even Russell Wilson will play well in this one. Seahawks cover the spread.

Panthers vs 49ers(-6.5)

21-17 49ers

This is going to be the first tough opponent the Panthers have faced in as long as I can remember. Now I’m not taking anything away from them, Cam Newton has been playing like Cam Newton from his rookie year and the defense is one of the best in the league. However, the 49ers are adding Aldon Smith back into their lineup and I think San Francisco will be able to use their run game to get the win at home.

Broncos (-7) vs Chargers

31-24 Broncos

The Chargers defense won’t be able to stop Peyton Manning on Sunday and the Broncos should be able to win this one on the road. Von Miller should cause problems all day for Phillip Rivers and will cause Rivers into coughing up the ball at least once. Broncos win by a touchdown.

Texans vs Cardinals (-2.5)

20-17 Cardinals

Case Keenum will be brought back down to earth this week against the Arizona defense. It’s hard to figure how the Texans will play this week while the health of Gary Kubiak is uncertain. I’m picking the Cardinals soley because of their defense and because they are at home. Cardinals win by 3 and cover the spread.

Cowboys vs Saints (-7)

35-28 Saints

At home, coming off a bad loss to the Jets, the Saints will bounce back with a big win over the Cowboys. Both teams have great offenses in this one and this will be a shootout for sure but I see Drew Brees being able to lead the Saints in the end, as the Cowboys will falter in the 4th as usual.

Dolphins (-3) vs Buccaneers

20-16 Buccaneers

The Dolphins are dealing with a lot right now with the all the news coming out about Richie Incognito. And while the Buccaneers still are without a win this year they showed some promise last week against Seattle in a game they should’ve won. I think the Bucs will finally put it together and get their first win this week.