Monday, January 27, 2014

Stan's Scintillating Run


Two weeks ago, Stanislas Wawrinka was not a household sports name. Now, two weeks later, the 2014 Australian Open Champion and World No. 3 has sprung out of fellow Suisse Roger Federer’s shadow and into the spotlight. ‘Stan the Man’ announced himself as a legitimate contender for the Aussie Open title by out-slugging and, more importantly, outlasting three-time defending champion Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals. He came oh so close to pulling off that tremendous feat in last year’s Aussie Open Round of 16, falling just short against Djokovic, 12-10 in the 5th set. However, he and many analysts point to that crushing defeat as the springboard for his recent surge into the top tier of men’s professional tennis. The ‘Big Four’ of Rafael Nadal, Djokovic, Andy Murray and Federer have been utterly ruthless and dominant for the past handful of years in controlling the outcome of major championships. Until Stan crowned himself a major champion, no one outside the ‘Big Four’ had been able to capture a Grand Slam title since Juan Martin Del Potro announced himself as a major contender when he beat Nadal and Federer back-to-back to claim the 2009 US Open. And you would have to go back another four and a half years to find another ‘non-Big Four’ player to win a major in now-retired Marat Safin’s run to the 2005 Australian Open crown. What this all means, despite Nadal’s injured back and hampered play, is that what Stan accomplished in this Australian Open is an incredibly difficult and rare feat. Not only did he win his first major title in an era where most guys outside the ‘Big Four’ don’t get a sniff, but he became the first player ever to defeat both Nadal and Djokovic in a Grand Slam. Pretty impressive for a guy who went into the tournament with a combined 2-27 record against the Top 2 players in the world.


The ‘Stanimal’ had always had the game to compete and play with the big boys, but it was his lack of confidence and belief in the big moments that had slowed his progress. His one-handed backhand has long been amongst the best in the game and, along with his booming serve and much-improved forehand wing, he has managed to become a relatively complete player. There are no aspects of Stan’s game that shout “Hey, come attack me, I’m weak!” His service return, especially off of big first serves, has been criticized for being too defensive and not damaging, but why don’t you try and be offensive off of a 140 mph bomb placed into either corner of the box? He has even shown the ability to volley effectively and play touch shots around the court, which has not been viewed as his strong suit during his career. Stan’s hiring of former top-player Magnus Norman as his coach at the beginning of last year has proved to be the difference in his belief and Norman has given him the voice he so desperately needed to hear. Norman, although not a Grand Slam champion, has played in Slam finals before and knows what it takes to believe you can compete at the top of the game. His influence on Stan should not go unnoticed, and he has been without question a huge positive in Stan’s corner. Wawrinka has always hit the ball big off of both wings, but it seems as if he is hitting the ball with even more aggression and power than ever before. He is also as strong and fit as he’s ever been, and flies around the court roping balls crosscourt and down-the-line. Stan is very hard to break, even when he is serving at a 55% first serve percentage like he did in the final against Nadal, because even if his percentage is somewhat low he wins a very high number of points when he makes his first delivery. He is able to control the point with that first serve right away and the way he is hitting his groundstrokes it is near impossible to get control of the point as a receiver. Even though Nadal’s back locked up on him during the early part of the 2nd set in yesterday’s final, he showed all of us why he is without question the No. 1 player in the world right now. He could barely serve or move, and knew it was going to take a monumental effort and historic collapse in order for him to prevail. However, Nadal did not give in and managed to sneak out the third set and make the fourth competitive until the very end. Nadal should be commended for sticking it out when he was clearly less than 100 percent, but nothing should be taken away from Stan’s performance in the final and throughout the tournament. For his efforts, he will wake up Monday morning as a Grand Slam champion and the number one Suisse player in the rankings, above Federer, for the first time in his career. Not a bad two weeks for a man who was set at 451/1 odds of winning the title before the tournament. I’ll leave you with evidence of just how good the ‘Stanimal’ was during the Aussie Open:







Saturday, January 18, 2014

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Predictions



Patriots vs. Broncos (-5)


Broncos 30-23 (Broncos cover spread)

The legendary quarterback matchup we’ve been waiting for all season is finally here. QB Tom Brady has to be commended for leading this depleted roster to an AFC Championship game, and will do whatever he can to get them to their sixth Super Bowl in the new millennium. Even though QB Peyton Manning has won a Super Bowl, make no mistake that this is the biggest game of his career. He can put to rest discussions of his ‘subpar’ playoff resume by capturing a second Super Bowl title. The Broncos, with home-field advantage, have the better overall team and will find a way to limit RB LaGerrate Blount and the Pats west-coast offense enough to give Manning the opportunity to win the game with his arm. Neither defense is very impressive, but the raucous crowd at Mile High will play a huge factor in the outcome of the game. This will come down to which superstar quarterback can come up big late in the game, and I’m going with Peyton to silence some of his critics and get the job done against his arch-rival.

49ers vs. Seahawks (-3.5)

Seahawks 21-17 (Seahawks cover spread)

This is a tough one to pick despite Seattle only dropping one home game since QB Russell Wilson took over the reins at the start of the 2012 season. If any team is built to go into the toughest stadium to play in and come out with a win against the best defense in football, it is the San Francisco 49ers. They are a very similar team to the Seahawks, and possess an equally as devastating running back-quarterback-defense combination. It’s hard to imagine this one being anything other than a knock-down, drag-it-out slugfest. This budding rivalry is becoming the best one there is the NFL, and this most important encounter will not disappoint. The difference in the game will be which running game can get off the blocks and create sustained drives, while keeping the opposing offense on the sidelines. Both teams don’t make many mistakes and are very disciplined groups, so don’t expect a turnover to decide this one. The game will be won in the trenches, and I’m going with Seattle to earn their way into their first Super Bowl under Head Coach Pete Carroll. 

Friday, January 10, 2014

NFL Divisional Weekend Predictions


MIKE

Saints vs. Seahawks (-7.5)

Seahawks 28-20 (Seahawks cover spread)

The Saints put some of their critics to rest by coming up with a gritty road playoff win at Philly last week. The 12th man will be in full force for the Divisional Round come Saturday afternoon, and the Saints will certainly have to perform much better on both sides of the ball from the Week 13 encounter to stand a chance against the NFC’s top seed. Saints DC Rob Ryan will have to be at his play-calling best in order to slow down the multitude of options the Seattle offense possesses. QB Drew Brees has never performed great away from the Superdome, and more so against the stout Seattle defense. I don’t expect this encounter to be as one-sided as the Monday night game several weeks ago, but the Saints aren’t built to win back-to-back playoff games on the road.

Colts vs. Patriots (-7)

Patriots 33-30 (Colts beat spread)

The Colts pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in postseason history in upending the Chiefs on Wild Card Weekend. QB Andrew Luck was far from his best but managed to carve up the KC defense when it mattered most. Coach Pagano will have his team ready to go in Foxboro on Saturday night, but so will Coach Belichick. QB Tom Brady has quietly put together an outstanding season with less weapons than he had at his disposal in previous seasons. It seemed as if the Pats found ways to climb out of troubling predicaments all season long, and will call upon those games to get it done once again this week. When you have a HOF QB and Coach combination as successful as Brady and Belichick at the helm, you always stand a chance to win the Super Bowl. Luck will make this one competitive throughout, but the Pats will find a way to sneak one out at home to reach the AFC Championship game.

49ers (-1.5) vs. Panthers

49ers 24-21 (49ers cover spread)

These two identical teams will go head-to-head in a physical playoff game that will truly be earned. QB’s Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick are very similar in that they can beat defenses with their accuracy and strength throwing the football, but also with their elusiveness and speed running the ball when the play breaks down. These teams possess two top five defensive units, and yards and points will be hard to come by. The extreme cold in Green Bay did not bother the 49ers last weekend, and they will surely welcome the comfortable temperatures of North Carolina on Sunday. Coach Rivera has done an excellent job in turning the Panthers around this season, capturing the NFC’s 2nd seed and winning the NFC South. Unfortunately, this weekend he will run into a similar team to his that does everything a little bit better. RB Frank Gore is an improvement from RB’s DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and the receiving corps of San Francisco contains more playmakers and game-breakers than Carolina’s. This will be a hotly contested game, but the 49ers will move on to their third consecutive NFC Championship game with another hard-fought win.

Chargers vs. Broncos (-9.5)

Broncos 38-27 (Broncos cover spread)

The Chargers were impressive in forcing Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton into several mistakes and capitalized on them with a solid offensive performance in winning last weekend. San Diego can certainly draw positives from their Thursday night win in Denver several weeks ago. They held QB Peyton Manning and that vaunted Denver passing attack in check and came away with a huge win in their playoff push. Manning and the Denver offense will reverse the trend on Sunday and explode for a huge offensive performance. The top-ranked offensive unit in the NFL will get their revenge against San Diego, and Manning will have a big day distributing the ball to his talented receivers, backs and tight ends. QB Philip Rivers has arguably been the second-best quarterback behind Manning this season, and will have a solid day throwing the ball against a shaky Denver pass defense. RB Ryan Matthews and WR Keenan Allen will have to have huge performances in order to potentially cause the upset in Mile High. Manning has had to prolific of a season to be bounced in the Divisional Round as he was last year, and will do his part to set up an intriguing AFC Championship game with longtime rival QB Tom Brady and the Patriots. 

ADAM

Saints vs Seahawks (-7.5)

27-21 Seahawks

The Saints will be sure to make this matchup much closer than their regular season meeting. In the end I think the combination of the Seahawks defense, Russell Wilson, and home field advantage will be too much for Drew Brees and the Saints to overcome.

Colts vs Patriots (-7)

31-21 Patriots

After their ridiculous comeback win against the Chiefs last week I want to pick the Colts but I can’t let myself pick against Tom Brady at home. The Colts will again find themselves playing from behind in the second half but won’t be able to pull off the same magic they did last week.

49ers (-1.5) vs Panthers

23-20 Panthers

It’s not easy to pick against the 49ers after the way they have been playing as of late but I believe in Cam Newton and this Panthers team. Cam will keep this game close for his team and the Panthers will win on a late field goal to prove to everyone that this season was not a fluke.

Chargers vs Broncos (-9.5)

35-27 Broncos


This one is a no brainer for me. Peyton Manning will show how superior he and the Broncos are by exploiting the Chargers secondary all day. Broncos roll and set up the long awaited AFC Championship matchup against the Patriots.

Saturday, January 4, 2014

NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions


MIKE

Chiefs vs. Colts (-1)

Chiefs 20-17 (Chiefs beat spread)

This will be a closely contested playoff game between two evenly matched squads. QB’s Alex Smith and Andrew Luck will go head-to-head in a battle of two relatively young, inexperienced groups at the playoff level. Both defenses rank in the bottom half of the league, but will lean on their opportunistic playmakers to step up in crunch time. The Chiefs ability to run the football with All-Pro RB Jamaal Charles will prove to be the difference in the game, in addition to the special teams threat RB Dexter McCluster poses. Expect Luck and Smith to play mistake-free games and continue to force the others’ hand throughout the contest. Indy will need big performances from both RB’s Trent Richardson and Donald Brown in order to get past the visiting Chiefs in this one.

Saints vs. Eagles (-2.5)

Saints 24-20 (Saints beat spread)

I was scratching my head on this one but decided to lean towards QB Drew Brees and the Saints to somewhat get the monkey off their backs in cold weather games this weekend. It will not be as frigid at Lincoln Financial Field as it will be in the ‘Ice Bowl 2’ at Lambeau Field, but will still be cold enough to make things uncomfortable for the Saints. Philly is a hostile environment for road teams, especially come playoff time, and will test New Orleans’ fortitude and toughness at the highest level. Brees will have to utilize his wide array of offensive weapons to break down the 29th ranked Eagles defense that has, despite the woeful ranking, played much better in their 7-1 second-half run. On the other side of the ball, QB Nick Foles will have to lean on perennial RB LeSean McCoy and WR DeSean Jackson to continue their explosive seasons in order to put up points against the 4th ranked Saints defense. If the Saints defense can do its part and limit McCoy in the running game, Brees will be able to be on the field long enough to dissect and pick apart the Philly defense in a big road victory.

Chargers vs. Bengals (-7)

Bengals 34-29 (Chargers beat spread)

I really do not have complete faith in either team, and will take the Chargers to lose the game but beat the spread on Sunday. QB Philip Rivers has to be commended for his outstanding season and ability to lead the Chargers to four-straight wins to close out the season with a playoff berth (the first since 2009). Cincinnati has taken care of business in winning important games versus the likes of Indianapolis and Baltimore late in the season, but is still a team vulnerable and mistake-prone. QB Andy Dalton threw 4 INT’s last week at home vs. Baltimore, and was fortunate that his defense was able to come up with a solid performance to mask his own. Both offenses are explosive, ranking 5th for the visitors and 10th for the home team, and are littered with playmakers in the skill positions. The 3rd ranked Cincinnati defense being in front of their home crowd may make the difference, but will certainly face a stern test from the Chargers. Dalton makes a few more plays than Rivers and the Bengals defense comes up with a big turnover to secure this one at home but will not cover.

49ers (-3) vs. Packers

49ers 21-14 (49ers cover spread)


The ‘Ice Bowl 2’ will be painfully cold at Lambeau on Sunday, possibly reaching temperatures of -30 degrees with the wind chill. Don’t fall into the trap of believing the 49ers aren’t capable of handling the weather because they reside in sunny California. San Fran is about a tough of a group as there is in the NFL, and will not be sidetracked by the ridiculous conditions. QB Aaron Rodgers and the Pack are riding high after their last-minute NFC North clincher last week at Chicago, and will need a repeat performance against a much tougher opponent to move on. RB Frank Gore and the 5th ranked San Fran defense will look to carry the 49ers to a Wild Card Weekend victory. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh will have his troops ready to go on Sunday that will translate into a typical physical, clock-controlled performance from the 49ers that will have them moving onto Carolina next weekend.

ADAM

Chiefs vs Colts (-1)

21-17 Colts

This is going to be a great game to kick off wildcard weekend. The Colts and Andrew Luck have been heating up a bit lately and the Chiefs have a lot to prove. For much of the season the Chiefs were top dogs in the NFL but over the last few weeks of the season they haven’t looked the part. I expect the Chiefs to rely heavily on Jamal Charles to get them past the Colts. However, I see Andrew Luck and the Colts getting the win Saturday at home. Luck has been heating up as of late and with the Chiefs 1-5 against teams with a winning record this season, I have to believe Indianapolis will move on to the divisional round.

Saints vs Eagles (-2.5)

38-35 Eagles

This game is going to be a shootout for sure. With two of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL don’t expect this to be a low scoring affair. The Eagles have been rolling lately thanks to the Superman like play of Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy who lead them to a NFC East crown. The Saints expected to get a bye in the first round but after losses in Week 15 and 16 they find themselves in the first round away from home. I expect Drew Brees to exploit the Eagles secondary and for Jimmy Graham to have a big game. In the end I have to go with my gut and choose the Eagles to come away with a narrow victory.

Chargers vs Bengals (-7)

Bengals 24-21

While the people of Cincinnati may not want to go out on Sunday to watch their Bengals play, I am excited for this one. The Bengals are clicking as of late. Their defense is the best in the AFC and Andy Dalton, not counting Week 17, has been great. The Chargers are extremely lucky to even be in the playoffs after a missed field goal and a missed call lead to them qualifying as the 6th seed. Their offense with Phillip Rivers and Keenan Allen is very dangerous but I see the Bengals defense being able to deal with them and hanging on for a 3 point win.

49ers (-3) vs Packers

28-24 Packers

The 49ers will travel to a very, very, very cold Green Bay on Sunday to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The 49ers defense has been strong all year and will have another big test with Aaron Rodgers back under center. I expect Rodgers and the 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick to go back and forth in this one. While the 49ers are the favorite, I’m going to pick Green Bay here. I think the home-field advantage, weather, and having Aaron Rodgers back will put them over the top and into the second round.